US yields can’t reclaim 1% - The EUR/USD to capture 1.2000?

November 20, 2020 10:30

Source: Economic Events 20 November 2020 - Admiral Markets Forex Calendar

Last week, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that they are on their way to a Covid-19 vaccine which is said to be effective in over 90% of the cases, while new vaccine news came last Monday.

This time it came from Moderna, announcing that its phase 3 study met statistical criteria with a vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (P < 0.0001), and even more interesting compared to the Pfizer/Biontech news, Moderna announced a longer shelf life for Its COVID-19 vaccine candidate at refrigerated temperatures.

But, while US yields spiked substantially higher despite falling short of a test of the 1% mark last week, this week, there was only a short spike higher in US yields, and the US dollar was quickly sold again.

As we pointed out in our last analytical piece for Gold e.g., the subdued bullishness in US yields is surprising, and it can only mean one thing in our opinion: market participants are still convinced that we are far away from returning to "normal" from an economic standpoint. Thus, chances of a massive fiscal package to stabilize the US economy, and an ultra-dovish approach from the US central bank FED to finance that fresh US debt, is probably are still on the table.

That said, the short-term focus in the EUR/USD is clearly on the 1.1900 mark from a technical standpoint.

In fact, a dynamic break above levels the path up to the current yearly highs around 1.2000 and even higher, coming together with a bullish seasonal window in the EUR/USD which occurs in December, and has so since the mid-1980s.

Technically, the mode in the EUR/USD stays bullish as long as we trade above 1.1600, even though even a drop lower wouldn't necessarily switch the mode to "ultra"-bearish, since the currency pair still finds solid support in the region around 1.1400/1500:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between August 14, 2019, to November 19, 2020). Accessed: November 19, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the EURUSD fell by 10.2%, in 2016 it fell by 3.2%, in 2017 it increased by 13.92%, 2018 it fell by 4.4%, 2019 it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.

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