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USD/JPY moving back towards 112 in response to another solid ISM reading?

April 03, 2019 10:30

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events April 3, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

In last Monday's weekly market outlook, we suggested that if the stabilisation of the 10-year US Treasury yields continues, "the USD/JPY could quickly reconquer 110.80/111.00 and go for another test of the region around the current yearly-highs of around 112."

Monday also gave us a very solid ISM Manufacturing reading, which certainly worked in our favor. In combination with similarly solid Chinese Caixin/Markit PMIs, the path was levelled above 111.00 into the start of the week.

If today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data reads equally solid, it could be fuel for speculation that it's the uncertainty around the trade conflict between the US and China which is currently holding business back, and awaiting a deal to be struck to spring back. The USD/JPY has a very good chance of testing 112.00 today, and possibly break even higher in the second half of the week, opening the door up to 114.00/50.

Only a drop back below 109.70 would technically darken the picture, and would quickly result in further losses with a dynamic push down to around 108.50.

USD/JPY index 4 hour chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY 4-hour chart (between January 18, 2019, to April 2, 2019). Accessed: April 2, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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