77% of retail accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Admiral Markets Group consists of the following firms:

Admiral Markets Pty Ltd

Regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)
CONTINUE

Admiral Markets Cyprus Ltd

Regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC)
CONTINUE

Admiral Markets UK Ltd

Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
CONTINUE
Note: If you close this window without choosing a firm, you agree to proceed under the FCA (UK) regulation.
Note: If you close this window without choosing a firm, you agree to proceed under the FCA (UK) regulation.
Regulator asic CySEC fca

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday in focus – USDJPY to break below 107 again?

October 04, 2019 11:30

Source: Economic Events October 4, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


As we enter the weekly close with the Non-Farm Payrolls being released shortly, we want to have a look at the USD/JPY.

After the weakest ISM Manufacturing reading since June 2009 last Tuesday (seeing the biggest September contraction since the end of the 2007-2009 recession), the ISM Employment component coming in at 46.3 against 47.4 for August 2019, and Wednesday's ADP employment disappointing market participants with private business having hired 135k workers in September against 140k expected, today's Non-Farm Payrolls have a higher likelihood of coming in weaker than the 145k expectation.

If today's NFPs significantly disappoint by coming in below 100k, another attempt to break back below 106.80/107.00 into the weekly close is a serious possibility.

This is especially true if any further signs of risk aversion start to materialise (impeachment inquiry into US president Trump and/or escalation of the trade dispute between the US and China respectively between the US and Europe). Here, a subsequent wave of selling could already level the path lower to the region around 105.80 into the next week where a drop below 105.80 could trigger further selling, quickly activating the region around 105.00.

Generally and technically, we consider the USD/JPY bearish on a daily time-frame below 108.50/109.00, a region which shouldn't be attacked today and in the days to come, even if today's NFPs come in better than expected:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between August 17, 2018, to October 4, 2019). Accessed: October 4, 2019, at 10:00 PM GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.


Discover the world's #1 multi-asset platform

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!

Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.