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The USD/CAD with new yearly lows, one day before Independence Day?

July 03, 2019 10:00

Source: Economic Events July 3, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Today, one day before the US bank holiday 'Independence Day' (regarding changed trading hours please check this page), we want to take a brief look at the USD/CAD.

After breaking out of the long-term trend channel on the downside, further losses could be expected and indeed did the currency pair go for a test of the yearly lows around 1.3070.

As of now, a sustainable break out hasn't yet happened, but it wouldn't come as a surprise to see another attempt to break lower over the next days.

Beside the fact that a bank holiday in the US usually results in a drop in volatility - which has been, based on our experience, usually negative for the USD/CAD due to their positive correlation to volatility, but also because disappointing economic data from the US (such as today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data set) could trigger another wave of selling in the USD, most likely driven by another push lower in 10-year US yields below 2%.

If on the other hand, if the data comes in as equally solid as last Monday's ISM Manufacturing, the USD/CAD should hold above 1.3070, at least for now. Even though the currency pair stays technically bearish below 1.3430 on a daily time-frame, finding a potential short-trigger around 1.3250:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/CAD Daily chart (between April 3, 2018, to July 2, 2019). Accessed: July 2, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/CAD increased by 9.4%, in 2015, it increased by 19.1%, in 2016, it fell by 2.9%, in 2017, it fell by 6.4%, in 2018, it increased by 8.4%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28.4%.


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