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Gold bulls still in charge, but is a short-term correction coming?

May 27, 2020 09:00

Source: Economic Events May 27, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Gold remains bullish after pushing to new yearly highs last week. Nevertheless, the short-term (and the technical bearish divergence in the RSI(14) on a daily time-frame) catches our interest, making us believe that a stint in the near-term below 1,700 USD is an option.

On the other hand, and as long as we trade above 1,660 USD, we rather expect a coming stint to the all-time high of around 1,920 USD.

The economic calendar is quite thin this Wednesday, with only the speech from Fed member and St. Louis Fed president Bullard could be of interest, even though, in our opinion, it seems unlikely that their rhetoric will massively diverge from recent comments from Fed chairman Powell.

In front of the US congress on May 13, Powell testified that the Fed will do everything and flood markets with trillions of US dollar if necessary to avoid a collapse of the US economy which were underlined in Powell's appearance on CBS "60 Minutes" where he said "In the long run and even in the medium run, you wouldn't want to bet against the American economy" while acknowledging that the unemployment rate could hit as high as 25%.

That in mind and if we get to see a sustainable drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 0.60% in the days to come leaves us with a bullish expectation and a target around 1,920, as initially already said, as long as we trade above 1,660 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between February 25, 2019, to May 26, 2020). Accessed: May 26, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.


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