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Gold bulls still waiting for their chance, push it back above 1,500 USD

November 27, 2019 10:30

Source: Economic Events November 27, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Over the last few days, the technical picture in Gold hasn't significantly changed: after the push below 1,500 USD, mainly driven by the sharp rise in 10-year US-Treasury yields at the start of November, the rest of the week with Thanksgiving and Black Friday should present themselves with overall low volatility.

Still, today we could probably some stronger moves, especially with the GDP Growth Rate at 1330 GMT and its second estimate.

The first estimate beat market expectations of 1.6 percent, following a 2 percent expansion, so a positive surprise should be priced in, while a disappointing reading could result in a positive push for the precious metal.

In general, and from a fundamental perspective, the outlook for Gold remains positive in our opinion.

With the Fed's balance sheet expanding at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3, 10-year US-Treasury yields losing their bullish momentum of the first two weeks of November and rumours making rounds that the mood in Beijing about a trade deal is rather pessimistic (=tensions between the US and China rising again), while into the yearly close a known bullish seasonal window opens, Gold bulls are most likely already champing at the bit, at least behind closed doors.

While technically, our picture switches to Long again with Gold breaking back above 1,520 USD which would level the path up to the current yearly highs around 1,557 USD, a first bullish sign in the lower time-frames (H1) is already sent with Gold recapturing 1,490/495 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between August 28, 2018, to November 26, 2019). Accessed: November 26, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.


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