Source: Economic Events October 16, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
Today, our focus will again be on Gold. After the recent developments in the trade dispute between the US and China last Friday and at least partial trade deal between the two biggest economies in the world, the precious metal just closed slightly below 1,500 USD.
The primary potential reason is probably that Gold traders already smelled something fishy in the "deal" which was announced by Trump on Friday, and when on Monday news hit the wire that China wants more talks before signing Trump's phase 1 deal, it became clear that it's only a deal on the surface and tensions between the US and China will likely remain in the near future.
If today's US retail sales data don't show the same solid developments as recent publications indicated, again fueling recession fears, our overall bullish outlook could find a new driver upwards, back above 1,500 USD and eyeing the current yearly highs around 1,555 USD in the days to come again.
And even if Gold does not take on bullish momentum again (probably because US retail sales data significantly beat expectations of 0.3% (MoM)), a stint below the current October lows around 1,460 USD wouldn't darken the picture, but instead, bring a potential mid-term long trigger around 1,440/450 USD into play:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between July 17, 2018, to October 15, 2019). Accessed: October 15, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.
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