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Gold bulls sceptical of the US-Chinese trade deal – soon to be back above 1,500?

October 16, 2019 10:30

Source: Economic Events October 16, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Today, our focus will again be on Gold. After the recent developments in the trade dispute between the US and China last Friday and at least partial trade deal between the two biggest economies in the world, the precious metal just closed slightly below 1,500 USD.

The primary potential reason is probably that Gold traders already smelled something fishy in the "deal" which was announced by Trump on Friday, and when on Monday news hit the wire that China wants more talks before signing Trump's phase 1 deal, it became clear that it's only a deal on the surface and tensions between the US and China will likely remain in the near future.

If today's US retail sales data don't show the same solid developments as recent publications indicated, again fueling recession fears, our overall bullish outlook could find a new driver upwards, back above 1,500 USD and eyeing the current yearly highs around 1,555 USD in the days to come again.

And even if Gold does not take on bullish momentum again (probably because US retail sales data significantly beat expectations of 0.3% (MoM)), a stint below the current October lows around 1,460 USD wouldn't darken the picture, but instead, bring a potential mid-term long trigger around 1,440/450 USD into play:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between July 17, 2018, to October 15, 2019). Accessed: October 15, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.


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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
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