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EUR/USD about to break to new yearly lows?

May 06, 2019 09:00

Source: Economic Events 06 May 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

Even though the economic calendar is relatively thin into the start of the week, it will be interesting to see the aftermath of the Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday, Retail Sales data from the Eurozone today and the market's reaction after Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Chinese products on Sunday, emphasising that the negotiations are not going fast enough.

That said, a stronger USD seems likely on a broad front, especially against the Euro, which is also likely to be attacked by Trump in regards to tariffs. The reason for this? The currencies of the affected economies (China and Europe) should see losses of their respective currencies to counter the negative impacts of tariffs on their goods against the USD.

If today's Retail Sales data for the Eurozone disappoint as well, a push lower in the EUR/USD seems likely. Numbers for February came in strong and rose 2.8% from a year earlier, following growth of 2.2% in January and easily beating market expectations of 2.3%.

But several weak data sets from Germany and the Eurozone over the last weeks leave chances high that the dataset today could come in below expectations, too, resulting out of rising recession fears, Brexit uncertainties and repeated tarrif threats against the Eurozone.

From a price action perspective, only a push back above 1.1260 would brighten the technical picture on H4, on a daily time-frame we consider a daily close above 1.1330 crucial to revoke the advantage from the bears.

As long as we trade below 1.1260, another stint down towards and below 1.1100 is an option:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on EURUSD 4-hour chart (between 24 March 2019 to 03 May 2019). Accessed: 03 May 2019 at 10:00 PM GMT

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the EURUSD fell by 11.9%, in 2015, it fell by 10.2%, in 2016 it fell by 3.2%, in 2017 it increased by 13.92%, 2018 it fell by 4.4%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 16.5%.

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