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When will DAX30 bulls go for a break of 13,800 points?

February 17, 2020 10:30

Source: Economic Events February 17, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Due to the US bank holiday "US President's Day", shortening US trading hours and minimising volatility for the start of the trading week, the chance of any significant moves in the German DAX30 is pretty low.

This is even more likely given the small expiration in Options at the EUREX next Friday.

Here, the Open Interest of Short Calls is quite elevated at 13,800 points, meaning that institutional market participants have an increased interest in holding the German index below 13,800 points, limiting any upside potential.

Nevertheless, if, for whatever reason, we get to see a break above 13,800 points today or in the near future, these institutional players might be forced to hedge their bets, pushing the DAX30 CFD even higher, and bring the next psychological milestone at 14,000 points into focus.

On the other hand: after the surprisingly neutral remarks from Fed chairman Powell last week couldn't bring Equities down, and the Thursday's drop was quickly erased, so it became clear that risk-reward ratios for Short engagements are probably not very attractive either.

That said, we see the DAX30 CFD solidly supported around 13,580/600 points with only a drop lower darkening the technical picture on H1 a bit, activating the region around 13,360/400 as a next target:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between January 28, 2020, to February 14, 2020). Accessed: February 14, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between November 2, 2018, to February 14, 2020). Accessed: February 14, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017 it increased by 12.51%, in 2018 it fell by 18.26%, in 2019 it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.


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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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