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Black Friday and subdued volatility: calm before the storm for the USD/JPY?

November 29, 2019 10:30


Economic Event

Source: Economic Events November 29, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

While we shouldn't expect any moments of high volatility today during shortened US trading hours (also in bonds/yields), we will project what is to come in the USD/JPY over the next week of trading.

With the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Non-Manufacturing (Wednesday), ADP (also on Wednesday) and Non-Farm-Payrolls (Friday), the main focus will stay on the developments in 10-year US-Treasury yields which has driven the price action in the currency pair this month.

After the US data releases over the last few weeks showed solid prints, and with market participants expecting no moves from the Fed (according to the Fed Watch Tool) at the meeting on December 11, we remain sceptical if the USD/JPY has a serious chance to stabilise significantly above 109.00.

The reason for this is that if data exceeds expectations, it could result in short-term bullish stints which are then aggressively sold off again, leaving a test of the region around 108.00 over the next week of trading a topic.

In our opinion, the same is true with underperforming data, which could result in rising expectations of a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could result in a drop in US yields since such an expectation would add to the bearish yield outlook with the Fed expanding its balance sheet at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3.

Nevertheless, we remain cautious in regards to an overly bearish USD/JPY outlook. As we approach the yearly close, volatility should be expected to stay low and we don't expect an aggressive attack at the region around 106.80/107.00, at least not for now, which would definitely increase chances of a sharper drop from a technical perspective, as low as 105.00 and probably even lower:

USDJPY Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between September 20, 2018, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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