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Your Weekly Fundamental View (Sep 11–15)

September 11, 2017 10:34

Need to Know

This week is abundant with strong economic data. SNB and BOE rate decisions are in focus and traders should be well aware that both the actual data and press releases and/or statements regarding their respective monetary policies should move both the CHF and GBP currency basket. So let's take a look at this week's important fundamental data.

Coming Up

The GBP CPI Will Be Out on Tuesday, 12 September.

This is possibly the UK's most important inflation data, because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.

Why should you care? Consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation. Measuring inflation is important in currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates.

GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y Due on Wednesday, 13 September

The data represents a change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, including bonuses.

Why should you care? Traders might want to trade the news based on a deviation above or below 50.

GBP Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate Are Out on Wednesday, 13 September

Claimant count change represents the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month. Coupled with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, these updates are released at the same time on Wednesday.

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months.

Why should you care? Traders could try to trade short term price movements following these news releases. Unemployment is very important for the future decisions on the country's monetary policy.

USD Crude Oil Inventories Due on Wednesday, 13 September

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals a decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels, and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects the CAD, due to the large size of Canada's energy sector.

The AUD Unemployment Rate is released on Wednesday, 13 September

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that has been unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past three months.

Why should you care? The data should move the AUD currency basket, as unemployment is an important signal of overall economic data.

SNB and BOE Monetary Policy Assessments With Libor and Official Bank Rate Decisions Are Out on Thursday, 14 September

Source: A historical chart on BOE Interest rate decision,

The SNB will decide upon the London interest rate for three-month Swiss franc deposits, while the BOE will release the data concerning the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

Why should you care? Traders could benefit from short-term volatility in GBP and CHF crosses when data is released and during the press conferences when traders and investors try to decipher cues regarding the current and future monetary policy steps.

USD CPI is Out on Thursday, 14 September

The data defines the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? News can show a bit of volatility in the US crosses as the CPI accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

US Unemployment Claims Released on Thursday, 14 September

These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result comes weaker than the forecast, it could be deemed good for the currency.

Why should you care? The number of the unemployed is an important signal in terms of overall economic health and could hint at future monetary policy steps.