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Your Weekly Fundamental View (May 8–12)

May 08, 2017 13:18

Need to Know

The main focus of this week is on GBP. The BOE interest decision on May 11 will come along with an updated quarterly inflation report. The BOE is expected to leave the rate unchanged, although the votes could come as an 8 to 1 split decision. The event is also known as "BOE Super Thursday".

Coming Up

AUD Retail Sales Are Due on Monday, 8 May.

The data represents a change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

Why should you care? This is also deemed as the earliest look at vital consumer spending data, the data is the primary gauge of consumer spending.

AUD NAB Business Confidence Will Be Out on Tuesday, 9 May.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia.

Why should you care? A higher than expected reading could be considered as bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading could be taken as bearish for the AUD.

EUR Balance of Trade Is Announced on Tuesday, 9 May.

The Eurozone balance of payments summarises all the transactions between euro area residents and non residents. The balance of trade, is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain period.

Why should you care? The Eurozone has regular trade surpluses, primarily due to its high export of manufactured goods such as machinery and vehicles. If a country exports a greater value than it imports, it is called a trade surplus or a positive balance. If a country imports a greater value than it exports, it is called a trade deficit or a negative balance.

USD Crude Oil Inventories Are Due on Wednesday, 10 May.

A buildup of crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector.

The NZD Interest Rate Decision Is Announced on Wednesday, 10 May.

Source: NZD historical rate change

The rate decision is usually priced in, and the impact is overshadowed by the RBNZ rate statement. The RBNZ is expected to leave the rate unchanged.

Why should you care? The rate decision might be priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBNZ rate and monetary policy statement. Any deviation from the expected result should heavily move the NZD currency basket.

The CNY Inflation Rate Will Be Out on Wednesday, 10 May.

This data represents the percentage rate of change of a price index over time.

Why should you care? The data might move HSI (Hang Seng Index) and other equities connected to CNY, so traders should watch for possible volatility following this report.

USD Unemployment Claims Are Released on Thursday, 11 May.

These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result is weaker than the forecast, it could be reflect well on the currency.

Why should you care? The number of unemployed people is an important signal of the overall economic health and could hint at future monetary policy steps.

The GBP Official Bank Rate Votes and Monetary Policy Summary Are Scheduled for Thursday, 11 May

Source: BOE Interest rate decision historical data

The BOE's MPC meeting minutes contain the interest rate vote for each MPC member during the most recent meeting. The monetary policy summary contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures. Usually there is a commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes.

Why should you care? The whole event should generate high volatility in GBP crosses and traders might jump in on a trading opportunity.

USD Preliminary Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and CPI Are Out on Friday, 12 May.

Preliminary UoM sentiment represents the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers and is an important gauge for financial confidence. Consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation.

Why should you care? USD might move with these reports and traders might trade the news spike in USD crosses.

USD Retail Sales Will Be Released on Friday, 12 May.

The report shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

Why should you care? This is the primary gauge of consumer spending, important for overall economic activity.