Your Weekly Fundamental View (Mar 27–31)

March 27, 2017 13:00

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Need to know

The main focus of the trading week is when the United Kingdom (UK) is expected to activate Article 50 and formally announce the British exit (Brexit) out of the European Union (EU). The announcement will start a lengthy negotiation process between the UK and the EU to arrange the details of the Brexit.

Coming up

US consumer confidence is announced on Tuesday, 28 March.

The CB consumer confidence shows the consumer spending in the US. The survey is based on about 5,000 households who rate the current and future economic development in relative terms.

Why should you care? The survey shows the financial confidence of households, which is an important indicator of consumer spending and key driver of the overall economic activity. The previous figure is 114.8 and the expected figure is 113.8.(*)

Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor speaks on Tuesday, 28 March.

The BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking on Tuesday. His speech will be released 15 minutes prior to the speech, and the Governor will also hold a press conference after his speech.

Why should you care? A media event of the Central Bank governor is always an important event due to potential details regarding the interest rate change, economic development, and future monetary policy in general.

United Kingdom (UK) starts Article 50 Brexit process on Wednesday, 29 March.

The UK is expected to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. This will formally announce the British exit (Brexit) out of the European Union (EU) and officially start the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. Article 50 indicates that there is a two-year window for the negotiation process to take place. The time period could become extended if all the member states agree to such an extension.

Why should you care? The Brexit will impact the current trade arrangements between the UK and the EU and the UK and the rest of the world. The Brexit negotiations will provide more information about the future deals regarding trade, law and a long list of other matters that will impact the UK once leaving the EU. Some of these issues will impact the potential economic and GDP growth, trade balance, and interest rate in the medium to long-term – which, in turn, effects the British Pound as well.

US growth rate on GDP quarter on quarter final released Thursday, 30 March.

The GDP growth measures the value of the entire US economy. Today's figure shows the GDP change in the value of the inflation-adjusted goods and services. It is the final number from a quarterly perspective (but with yearly numbers).

Why should you care? The forecasted figure for the US is 2.0%, whereas the previous figure is 3.5%.(*)

Japan unemployment rate is announced on Friday, 31 March.

Japan releases new unemployment figures on Friday. The data indicates how many people are actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Why should you care? Although the Japanese economy relies on the industrial sector for spending, employment figures always show an important measurement as well. The previous figure is 3% and the current forecast is 3%.(*)

Germany unemployment rate is announced on Friday, 31 March.

Germany also releases its new unemployment figures on Friday just like Japan. The figures also indicate how many people are actively seeking employment during the previous month.

Why should you care? Employment figures are an important indication of the overall economic situation and the country's health.

United Kingdom (UK) releases GDP growth rate quarterly and yearly finals on Friday, 31 March.

The UK is releasing the final GDP growth figures for the quarter and year. The GDP is basically the value of the entire British economy. The change of the inflation-adjusted goods and services indicates growth, no change, or decline of the economy.

Why should you care? The previous figure for quarterly GDP was 0.6% and the current forecast is 0.7%.(*) The previous figure for yearly GDP was 2.2% and the current forecast is 2.0%.(*)

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Source: development of quarterly GDP numbers for UK.

(*) Admiral Markets Calendar