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Your Weekly Fundamental View (Feb 20–Feb 24)

February 20, 2017 14:00


Need to know

The upcoming week is not so heavy on fundamental events. The main focus of this week is on mostly on FOMC, and GBP Second Estimate GDP. The lighter data this week is spread evenly among different crosses.

Coming up

AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and RBA's Gov Lowe Speech is due on Tuesday, 21 February.

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions. Additionally, RBA's Governor Philip Lowe is due to speak at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney and might provide volatility on Asia-Pacific crosses.

Why should you care? The volatility might move a complete AUD currency basket.

NZD GDT Price Index is out on Tuesday, 21 February.

GDT measures the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries.

GBP Second Estimate GDP is released on Wednesday, 22 February

Source: Historical 2nd GDP Growth rate Sentiment

The release is focused on the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

Why should you care? It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. As such, it may provide volatility, causing possible news spike on GBP/USD and other GBP crosses.

EUR German Ifo Business Climate is out on Wednesday, 22 February

The data provides a level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers and wholesalers and it is correlated with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of economic health, and the data could move the EUR to some extent.

FOMC Meeting Minutes are on Wednesday, 22 February.

The minutes of the previous meeting are reported three weeks after the meeting. It discloses policy changes at the end of each meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

Why should you care? Any tone that is more hawkish or dovish than expected might move the USD currency basket and provide volatility to most Forex major pairs.

US unemployment claims are released on Thursday, 23 February.

These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result comes weaker than the forecast, it could be deemed good for the currency.

Why should you care? The number of unemployed people is an important signal of the overall economic health and could hint at future monetary policy steps.

USD Crude Oil Inventories are due on Thursday, 23 February.

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector. Previous data showed a 9.5m barrels increase.

CAD CPI is out on Friday, 24 February

The CPI data represents the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? This may be the most important inflation-related release due to its earliness and broad scope. This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers and consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.

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