Weekly Market Outlook: OPEC+ and US Non Farm Payrolls in Focus

May 31, 2021 17:00

Investor attention this week will be largely focused on Friday and the release of the non farm payroll from the US. After surprisingly weak employment figures in April, we are set to find out whether this was merely an aberration or the start of a more concerning trend. 

In a week which begins with both the UK and US markets closed, for the late May bank holiday and Memorial Day respectively, other key events to look out for include the release of inflation data from the EU, an interest rate decision from the Royal Bank of Australia and the all important meeting of OPEC+.

You can learn more about some of the global themes affecting the markets in this selection of education articles:

Weekly Economic Calendar

Depicted: Admirals MetaTrader 5 - Economic Calendar

 

Interested in learning more about trading? At Admirals, we host trading webinars every day from Monday to Friday. These live sessions cover a range of trading topics, are conducted by professional traders and, best of all, are absolutely free! Click the banner below to see the upcoming schedule and reserve your spot today:

OPEC+ Meeting

Oil prices rose as the Asian markets began trading on Monday morning with the outlook for demand continuing to improve, meaning that oil is set to close its second consecutive month of gains.

After both falling during Friday’s session, Brent and WTI futures were up 0.62% and 0.56% respectively by 11:00 BST.

On Tuesday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) are set to meet to discuss supply policy against a backdrop of rising global demand as economies from Europe, the US and China continue to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors anticipate that demand will continue to accelerate throughout the remainder of the year.

It is expected that OPEC+ members will continue to gradually ease its current restrictions on oil supply until July. Particular attention will also be paid to any news about Iranian supply as talks of the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal could lead to the easing of US sanctions.

Depicted: Admirals MetaTrader 5 - Brent Crude Daily Chart. Date Range: 1 April 2020 - 31 May 2021. Date Captured: 31 May 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

 

Brent crude has been following an upward trend since the end of 2020. It is currently trading above both its 50-session moving average (white) and its 100-session moving average (red), slowly approaching $70 a barrel. Will we see prices pass this important level this week for the first time since March?

Depicted: Admirals MetaTrader 5 - Brent Crude Weekly Chart. Date Range: 6 September 2015 - 31 May 2021. Date Captured: 31 May 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

 

If you are feeling inspired and ready to trade the commodities market using Contracts For Difference (CFDs), you can open a live trading account by clicking on the banner below and accessing an impressive range of trading features to support you in your journey!

US Non Farm Payroll

April’s employment data from the US fell massively short of analysts’ expectations - with only 266,000 jobs added to the economy against an expected 990,000.

These underwhelming figures led to steep drops in the US dollar, continuing the downward trend against other major currencies which we have observed since the beginning of April.

The US is expected to have added 650,000 new jobs to the economy in May and economists remain optimistic about strong growth in the labour market in the months ahead as the post-pandemic recovery continues to build momentum.

Depicted: Admirals MetaTrader 5 - US Dollar Index Daily Chart. Date Range: 30 October 2020 - 31 May 2021. Date Captured: 31 May 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

 

After a positive start to the year for the US dollar index, it has lost ground and is on course to record its second consecutive month of loss. 

Currently it trades around the $90 level, down from a high of $93.43 at the end of March, but not quite reaching the three year low we saw at the beginning of 2021. 

More disappointing employment data on Friday is certain to negatively impact the outlook for US economic recovery and could further accelerate declines in the US dollar. 

Depicted: Admirals MetaTrader 5 - US Dollar Index Weekly Chart. Date Range: 6 September 2015 - 31 May 2021. Date Captured: 31 May 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Trade Forex With Admirals

If you are looking to trade any fluctuations in the Forex market this coming week, look no further than the Trade.MT5 account from Admirals! Trade Forex CFDs 24 hours a day, 5 days a week at competitive terms, with the latest market updates and technical analysis provided for free! Click the banner below to open your live account today!

INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:

The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
  3. With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Roberto Rivero (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
  6. Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  7. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Avatar-Admirals
Admirals An all-in-one solution for spending, investing, and managing your money

More than a broker, Admirals is a financial hub, offering a wide range of financial products and services. We make it possible to approach personal finance through an all-in-one solution for investing, spending, and managing money.