Source: Economic Events August 7, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
Today we want to have a look at the USD/CAD. After focussing 1.3000 into the end of the second quarter, the currency pair has seen a short rebound, stabilising above the psychologically relevant level.
One of the main reasons for the Loonie not taking on further bullish momentum, seems to be that the recent trade war fears, which not only triggered higher volatility (note: increasing volatility is usually CAD negative) but saw Crude Oil further decreasing after it got hit by around 7% last Thursday, when markets were threatened by global growth concerns after US President Donald Trump tweeted about more tariffs on Chinese goods from September onwards.
While this overall outlook makes it unlikely to see a drop below 1.3000 in the near future, or at least the short-term, the USD/CAD could probably see a push lower.
Today's release of the Ivey PMI, giving an impression on Canada's Business Confidence, is expected to come in at 53, slightly above last months' reading at 52.4.
A better-than-expected reading could trigger CAD strength, since it would underline the hints from the BoC earlier in July where the central bank signalled that it currently sees no reason to follow any move by the Fed to lower rates.
That means on the other hand in our opinion that any disappointing reading could result in further USD/CAD gains back above 1.3300.
The technical key level seems to be found around 1.3260/3300: recapturing this region with backwind from a weak Ivey PMI reading would 1.3430/50 as a target on the downside.
Finding resistance here, on the other hand, leaves the currency pair vulnerable to another stint down to 1.3000/3050:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/CAD Daily chart (between May 8, 2018, to August 6, 2019). Accessed: August 6, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of the USD/CAD increased by 9.4%, in 2015, it increased by 19.1%, in 2016, it fell by 2.9%, in 2017, it fell by 6.4%, in 2018, it increased by 8.4%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28.4%.
Discover the world's #1 multi-asset platform
Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!
Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
- Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
- To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
- Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.