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Head-shoulder chart formation in Gold – focus on key-support at 1,275/277

April 08, 2019 12:00

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events April 8, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


After the Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday printed at 196,000, with the average hourly earnings coming in at 0.1% against 0.3% expected (MoM), the technical side in Gold becomes very interesting.

As expressed in the chart below, on a daily time-frame a head-shoulder formation can be spotted with a key-support region coming in around 1,275/277 USD. A break lower finds a projected price target around 1,235/240 USD.

The formation would be negated with a push back above 1,325 USD, a scenario which became a bit less likely after last week's NFP print, pushing back expectations slightly for a rate cut from the Fed in 2019.

On the other hand: with time running out in terms of a Brexit conflict, a no-deal scenario became very likely over the last week.

If such a no-deal result really comes to pass, resulting volatility and uncertainty would definitely favour Gold in the short-term with a sharp rise back above 1,300 USD, where we would quickly see further gains up to 1,320/330 USD.

Gold index daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 14, 2018, to April 5, 2019). Accessed: April 5, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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