ABC Wave Counts Replace 123 Structures 2015.11.02

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be making a bullish retracement within the downtrend. The month of October has ended without a bearish break of the bottom at 1.0450, which in my analysis means that an ABC (green) now seems a more likely scenario than a 123 (green). Typically ABC zigzags will complete around the 100% Fibonacci target or in between the 100 and 161.8%.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is making a bear flag chart pattern (green lines), which is a typical formation for a wave 4. The invalidation level is the 50% Fib and trend line (red). A break below the bear flag and 261.8% Fib target could see an extension of wave 3 (brown) to the 423.6% Fib target.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD monthly candle of October has ended bullish, which decreases the chances of a bearish outlook and hence the wave has been changed to reflect that an ABC zigzag (purple) at least seems equally likely as a 123.

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag (green), which could have completed a wave 2 (pink) unless price breaks above the 100% resistance level (invalidation).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY price action remains trapped between support and resistance and price is now in a smaller chart pattern (see 1 hour). The wave structure is showing that price can stay between these levels for another wave X and Y (brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is in a contracting triangle (green/red). A break above the resistance level invalidates the current bearish wave structure where as break below support could indeed see wave C (blue).