Trading Forex requires great knowledge of technical indicators and fundamental events. Although most traders tend to focus on one of the aforementioned approaches, today, more and more attention is being paid to proper trading psychology and risk management. This is where currency correlation comes into play as it is strongly connected with risk management and can help you better understand the market when trading. Understanding of the correlation between currency pairs helps you avoid overtrading and using your margin to hold less desired assets. This article will explain what currency correlation is, how to understand it, and, ultimately, how to improve your trading strategy by adding currency correlation knowledge to it.
It's easy to see why currencies are interdependent. If you are trading the British pound against the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY), you are actually trading an offshoot of the GBP/USD and USD/ JPY pairs; both currencies – GBP/JPY – share a relationship with the US dollar and as such, a correlation to each other. While some currency pairs will move in the same direction, others may follow the opposite direction. This is the result of more compound forces.
In financial terms, correlation is the numerical measure of the relationship between two variables. The range of correlation coefficient is between -1 and +1. A correlation of +1 denotes that two currency pairs will flow in the same direction. A correlation of -1 indicates that two currency pairs will move in the contradictory direction 100% of the time, whereas the correlation of zero denotes that the relationship between the currency pair is completely arbitrary.
There are quite a few issues with poorly coded currency strength meters. If a currency strength meter doesn't give accurate currency strength indicator values, it's of little use regardless of its other features. With an outdated currency strength meter, traders might, but not necessarily, experience:
Some products might even produce data that's moved away from the original concept of what currency strength actually is. Some apply smoothing filters, like moving averages. Others apply other filters, e.g., RSI and MACD. This is just a complex algorithm of indicators that might make you enter false trades and losing streaks.
The real strength of currency trading comes from correlation. Correlation matrix has been coded properly, using the latest technologies, and is unlikely to cause any of the above-mentioned issues.
Over the years, Forex strength meter has naturally evolved into a correlation matrix that could also be more complex and accurate. Forex Correlation, like other correlations, is a term designated to signal correlation between two of the pairs. When two sets of data are strongly linked together, we say they have a high correlation. When pairs move in the same direction, they have a positive correlation. If they move in the opposite direction, we observe a negative correlation between them. A perfect correlation occurs when pairs move in the same direction, which is extremely rare. We say that correlation is high when pairs move in almost the same direction.
It's obvious that changes in correlation do exist, which makes calculating correlation very important. Global economic factors are dynamic – they can and do change on a daily basis. Correlations between two currency pairs may vary over time, and as a result, a short-term correlation might contradict the projected long-term correlation.
Looking at correlations over the long term provides a clearer picture about the relationship between two currency pairs – this tends to be a more precise and definitive data point. There are many reasons for a change in correlation. The most common are deviating monetary policies, sensitivity of certain currency pairs to commodity prices as well as political and economic factors.
The ideal way to strengthen your position is to calculate your correlation pairing yourself. It sounds complex, but actually is quite simple. Just download our award winning MT4SE and start using it. The program will automatically do the calculation for you on different timeframes.
Although correlation ratios change, it's not compulsory to update your numbers every day. It is however, a good idea to update them when you change trading time frames.
Each country has a different monetary policy in a different cycle, so changes to these will affect some currencies more than others.
Elimination of double exposure: Opening multiple positions with pairs that are highly correlated is not advisable as it gives rise to more exposure. Moreover, having higher exposure to a particular currency can be harmful should the analysis go wrong. For example, by going long on AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, and EUR/JPY, a trader gives rise to double exposure if they are highly correlated. Digging deeper, the aforementioned positions bring double exposure to AUD and JPY, which can be harmful for trade should the movement go in the opposite direction from the trader's expectations. Knowing the correlation levels between different currency pairs, a trader can get the idea of how they are connected to each other and avoid double exposure to a weak currency.
Elimination of unnecessary hedging: If the correlation strength between different pairs is known in advance, a trader can avoid unnecessary hedging. For example, there is a negative correlation between EUR/USD and USD/CHF that restricts taking positions in the same direction. The reason is when you win on one trade, you are more likely to lose on another trade, whereas volatility makes it uncertain whether the gains will surpass losses or not.
Signals high risk trades: Correlation between different currency pairs can also signal the amount of trade strategy risk. For example, if we are going long on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and both are positively correlated pairs, it signals a possible double risk from the same position if one of the currencies is strong. It might also happen that one of the pairs is indicating a strong movement, while the other is just ranging, which signals to avoid entering trades with correlated pairs in the opposite direction. For example, if the EUR/USD is witnessing a downtrend, and the GBP/USD is ranging, a trader should avoid going long on GBP/USD, which carries a higher downside risk due to a possible USD strength.
Understanding correlated currency pairs is vital to determining your portfolio's exposure to market volatility. Since currency trades in these pairs and no pair trades in a vacuum, it's critical to risk mitigation that you learn about these correlations and how they change.
Source: Admiral Markets Correlation Matrix
Positively correlated pairs have shown positive correlation, moving in a similar direction.
Negatively/inversely correlated pairs tend to trade in the opposite direction from each other.
Correlations are also divided into four groups in accordance with their strength. For easy viewing, all correlations in the following table are coloured to show their strength, as is noted below:
Equally important, it matters whether the correlation is positive and/or negative.
In the Forex market, currency units are quoted as currency pairs. The base currency – also known as the transaction currency – is the first currency appearing in a pair quotation, followed by the second part of the quotation called the quote currency, or the counter currency.
The example above shows that CAD is the strongest as it shows +91 correlation between USD/CAD and EUR/CAD (CAD is the quote currency). The weakest correlation is between EUR/GBP (GBP is quote currency) and GBP/CHF (GBP is the base currency) – -96 – which means that the simultaneous positions in this pair in the same direction are very likely to cancel each other out, indicating the GBP strength.
The MetaTrader 4 platform comes with a useful selection of popular indicators built into the client terminal. You can also download independently written custom indicators.
As MetaTrader 4 is an open platform and has such a wide community of users, indicator innovations move fast. There are thousands of custom indicators available for analysing the Forex market using different algorithms.
You can search for custom indicators from within the chosen platform. Some charge money for the full version, but some are entirely free to download, such as our award-winning MT4SE.
Whenever you consider paying for a trading aid, remember that any reputable provider will offer a free trial version, and you can even program an algorithm yourself.
We recommend you to download MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition – an extended version of the client terminal. It includes many features; not just the currency strength meter, but also a live trading simulator to backtest strategies. It also lets you add different custom indicators and EAs you might benefit from.
Once you've downloaded your MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition that includes our currency strength meter, you are set to go!
Bear in mind that correlations do change, and past performance is not always a guaranteed indicator of future correlation. However this information can be used to develop your own currency correlation strategy to minimise your portfolio's exposure.
In the last few years, it has become quite common to trade currency correlations in regards to extending your portfolio of trading assets to 20 or more currency pairs with strong correlation.
Positive Green: Little or no correlation. Positions on these symbols will tend to move independently and have profitability, which is not related to each other.
Negative Green: Little or no correlation. Positions on these symbols will tend to move independently and have profitability, which is not related to each other.
Positive Blue (up to +30): Weak correlation. Positions on these symbols will tend to move independently and have profitability, which is not related to each other.
Positive Blue (up to +49): There may be similarity between positions on these symbols. Positions in the same direction may have similar profit. Positions in the opposite direction may offset each other.
Negative Blue (up to -30): Weak correlation. Positions on these symbols will tend to move independently and have profitability, which is not related to each other.
Negative Blue (up to -49): There may be similarity between positions on these symbols. Positions in the same direction may offset each other. Positions in the opposite direction may have similar profit.
Positive Orange (up to +75): Medium positive correlation. Positions in the same direction on these symbols will tend to have similar profit. Positions in the opposite direction will tend to cancel each other out.
Negative Orange: (up to -75): Medium negative correlation. Positions in the same direction on these symbols will tend to cancel each other out. Positions in the opposite direction will tend to have similar profit.
Positive Red: (up to +100): Strong positive correlation. Positions in the same direction on these symbols are very likely to have similar profit. Positions in the opposite direction will cancel each other out.
Negative Red: (up to -100): Strong negative correlation. Positions in the same direction on these symbols are very likely to cancel each other out. Positions in the opposite direction will have similar profit.
It's a relatively simple concept that allows you to judge the raw strength of a currency in isolation, as opposed to seeing what it is doing against another currency.
The calculation method may vary according to which Forex meter you use. One of the best known measures of a currency in isolation is the above-mentioned base vs quote currency concept. This gauge calculates the value of all available currencies relative to each other.
These currencies are:
A less-known, but a more comprehensive measure is the broad USD index, which uses a wider selection of currencies.
Both work in a similar way. They calculate the strength of the Dollar by aggregating bilateral exchange rates into a single number and applying a weighting for the currencies included.
The weighting applied for the broad index is a trade weighting, derived from trade data. Specifically, this is the share of merchandise imports in annual bilateral trade with the U.S.
Our correlation matrix uses complex algorithms, but is very easy to use. It even allows you to choose a strength for a certain period of time. For intraday trading, we recommend up to 200 bars, while for scalping, up to 50 bars should be enough.
Scalping: M5, 50 bars
Intraday trading: H1, 200 bars
Intra week swing trading: H1, 500 bars or H4, 200 bars
Once you have a better overview of the correlations and their possible impact on the price, start trading correlation on the pairs of your choice. We suggest to start with demo account trading first. The main idea would be to open around 10 positions at once. Try to first split your portfolio into premier categories – pairs that have negative correlation. After that, try to make sure that these pairs do not correlate with each other to a larger degree. When you see price movements, identify the direction of the trade, and remove the losing positions from your portfolio.
You might also try to trade strongly correlated pairs, but keep in mind that you will probably be double-exposed to a currency. Sometimes, it might actually be a good way to trade, especially if the strength of a currency is supported by an economic fundament or important news events.
A good tip to give here is to consider setting your stop-loss on the winning trade, so they are at least equal to the loss that resulted from the closure of the losing trade, plus the cost of the spread and the cost of commission (if any) plus one pip on top of that. This way you could secure just a small gain on your profitable trade.
We hope you have enjoyed this article about currency correlation trading. Now it's time to try it out, open a demo account and try to transfer this theory into practice.