How to Trade the GBP/USD

May 15, 2020 10:30 UTC
Reading time: 35 minutes

Did you know the United Kingdom is the fifth-largest economy in the world? This is why the British pound is one of the world's most popularly traded currencies. With rising global tensions led by the United States, a shifting relationship with the European Union, and an active central bank in the Bank of England, this is one of the best times in history to learn how to trade the GBP/USD.

In this article, you will discover the history of the GBP/USD, then learn how the GBP/USD exchange rate works, which factors influence its price, the best trading account for pound/dollar trading, the best GBP/USD technical analysis tools to learn when to buy or sell the currency pair, as well as a GBP/USD trading strategy you can start trading with right away!

History of the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD history is a long one, as rich and interesting as any currency pair you can name. The gold standard has governed a large portion of the historical forex rates between the two currencies. This isn't unique to Pound Sterling or the Dollar; the gold standard determined a wide range of historical foreign exchange rates. In fact, the modern concept of the GBP/USD exchange rate didn't really begin until the early 1970s, when both the US and the UK moved to floating exchange rates.

Prior to 1971, the forex rate history of the Pound and other Allied nation currencies was effectively tied to the value of gold. This was one of many agreements established at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, an event that governed the Dollar to Pound exchange rate history for close to three decades.

GBP/USD History After Bretton Woods

After the fall of the Bretton Woods agreement, GBP/USD currency conversion history took on a much more varied shape. In the 1980s alone, the forex currency pair saw historic volatility. There were a lot of factors affecting the exchange rate, but major moves can often be reduced to one or two predominant influences. If we look to 1985, we can see a number of interesting events:

  • The first British mobile phone call was made
  • British scientists conducting a survey in the Antarctic discovered a hole in the ozone layer
  • The miners' strike ended
  • GBP/USD reached 1.05

This is the lowest historical exchange rate for the pair, during a time when the rate had reached up to 2.44 not too long before. So what happened in the US Dollar to GBP exchange rate history to cause such a change over a span of just five years? Well, the 1980s began with the US economy in a long-standing state of malaise. Energy shortages and the rise of OPEC in the 1970s saw prices in general, and oil in particular, spiralling upwards.

Primarily, the scarcity of oil hindered the economy's output. This combination of stagnation and inflation (or stagflation), wasn't unique to the US, but inflation was especially steep and persistent there. The country also suffered from high unemployment and the aftermath of its war in Vietnam, while the Fed (Federal Reserve) failed to implement the changes to its monetary policy, which were necessary to address the high inflation.

Change at the Fed was on its way, though. In the summer of 1979, President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The changes didn't stop there: by 1981, Carter was gone and Ronald Reagan took the position. Along with him came 'Reaganomics'. One of the pillars of this new economic policy was high interest rates to curb inflation. Under Volcker's leadership, the Fed hiked the federal funds rate by 20%.

This came with a cost: unemployment climbed above 10% amidst another recession, but inflation fell. Later, when inflation was back under control, the Fed was able to ease a little. This, combined with the expansive tax cuts and large military spending of the Reagan administration, eventually saw sectors of the economy booming, and the Dollar with it. By 1985, the US dollar had risen 50% against the other leading currencies of the period. International trade and foreign exchange rates are connected, of course.

The strength of the Dollar was a huge hindrance to the US industry, which was unable to price itself competitively against foreign competition. This led to the Plaza Accord: an orderly devaluation of the Dollar undertaken by the central banks of France, Germany, Japan, the US, and the UK. Central bank factors that affect exchange rates are not always as orderly as this, as we shall see.

Did you know that you can trade the GBP/USD completely risk-free? That's right! With an Admiral Markets demo trading account, you can trade in a virtual trading environment, using virtual currency, thereby completely avoiding putting your own capital at risk. Try it for yourself today by clicking the banner below and opening your FREE demo account!


GBP/USD Intervention: the ERM and Black Wednesday

Despite governments moving to floating exchange rates in the early 1970s, certain governments intermittently intervened in the FX market, in order to variously defend or weaken their currencies, as the Plaza Accord shows. Countries with export-oriented economies, such as Japan, have been known to devalue their currencies in order to boost the export market.

The Bank of England (BoE) intervened heavily in the early 1990s. Its problems in intervention led to one of the most dramatic moves ever witnessed in the Pound to Dollar exchange rate history. The UK government was committed to maintaining the Pound's value against the German Deutschmark as part of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), and this led to the Bank of England propping up the value of Sterling. It did this by buying the currency and raising interest rates. But here's the kicker: at the time, the UK economy was enduring a recession. Raising interest rates was consequently an inappropriate monetary measure. Something had to give.

A large number of speculators, most notably George Soros, recognised the shaky position of the BoE and began shorting the pound. On Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, Britain left the ERM and ditched the idea of supporting the Pound. Releasing the floodgates had a devastating impact on Sterling's value.

It sank 25% against the Dollar in a day, in one of the most dramatic moves ever seen in the pound to dollar history. The price continued to move lower all the way into early 1993. You can read more about this in our article discussing the Top Three Most Successful Forex Traders Ever.

Alternatively, you can head to the live Forex markets right now by opening a live Forex trading account with Admiral Markets! Click the banner below to open your account!


GBP/USD During the 2008 - 2009 Financial Crisis

The prelude to the global recession of 2008 and 2009 was the sub-prime crisis. The sub-prime crisis began to simmer in early 2007, reaching boiling point by the summer. By this time, it was clear that several major US financial institutions were in real trouble, but the global reach of the problem was not yet fully apparent.

Consequently, the GBP to Dollar exchange rate rose for much of 2007, a response to the seeming relative weakness of the US economy. This culminated in the GBP/USD reaching 2.1163 in November 2007, the highest level seen in the historical currency exchange rate since 1980.

Once the Bank of England realised the extent of the crisis, however, it was forced to make drastic changes from 2008 onward. By early 2010, the BoE had increased the ratio of its balance sheet relative to GDP almost threefold compared to pre-crisis levels, by 450 basis points to a record low of .5% before implementing quantitative easing.

Brexit hits the GBP/USD Exchange Rate

2016 brings us to the Brexit vote. We can see from the historical data from that period just how pronounced the effect of the leave vote was on the value of the Pound. The Brexit vote saw GBP breaching lows not seen in over 30 years of Forex historical data. In fact, it was the weakest the Pound-Dollar rate has been since the low from 1985. The crucial difference is that in the 1980s, it was more about Dollar strength, whereas the move in June 2016 was all about Sterling weakness.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty over Brexit. To some degree, there is still a question mark hanging over whether the UK will leave at all. It, therefore, illustrates the impact of positioning and market sentiment ahead of actual change in the fundamentals.

The Sterling Flash Crash

There was a steep move down that occurred in the markets on 7 October 2016. This was the so-called 'Sterling flash crash' that made all sorts of GBP/USD Forex news headlines. The Pound moved 6% lower against the Dollar in just a matter of minutes. The decline came at a tense time for the Pound, of course, with talks of a hard Brexit that might see the UK leave the single market.

The exact causes of the move are debatable. Some have suggested a domino effect of stops being hit, while others have surmised it was algorithmic trading gone wrong. The suddenness of the move, and the equally sudden recovery does suggest some element of automation at play, but there can be little doubt that the conditions were already in place to spook the market.

Perhaps the biggest lesson to take away from this is: is that there was no way to forecast the GBP/USD moving in this manner. Trading is about dealing with uncertainty. A large part of the skill is how you deal with the unexpected. This remarkable event shows how important it is to always maintain good money management. The best way to find out how you react to the vagaries of the market is to practice using a demo trading account. This allows you to trade real, live market prices, without risking a penny.

How does GBP/USD trading work?

In the GBP/USD, the British pound is called the base currency and the US dollar is called the terms currency. The quote of the currency pair shows the number of US dollars needed to buy one British pound.

For example, let's say the GBP/USD exchange rate reads 1.2500.

If buying, the quote shows how many units of the terms currency is needed to buy one unit of the base currency. So, in this example, you need to have 1.25 USD to buy 1 GBP.

If selling, the quote shows how many units of the terms currency you get for selling one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you will receive 1.25 USD when you sell 1 GBP. So how does this work for Forex traders?

When it comes to trading Forex and the British pound to US dollar exchange rate your Forex broker will quote two prices for the GBP/USD, such as:

In the GBP/USD quote above, there is a bid price and ask price whose levels will constantly fluctuate. A unit of measurement in the GBP/USD quote is called a pip, which is 0.0001 of the quoted price. If the bid price moves from 1.27366 to 1.27376, this is a one pip move.

The difference between the bid and ask price is called the spread. In the example above the spread is actually less than one pip (1.27366 - 1.27373 = 0.00007, using 0.0001 Forex pip measurement means this is 0.7 pips). The last digit in the quote is used by trading robots for precision pricing.

The spread value is one cost of trading. If you buy at the ask price of 1.27373 and immediately sell without any price movement, you would lose 0.7 pips as you would have sold at the bid price of 1.27366. Therefore, the market needs to go more than 0.7 pips higher before you can close out at the bid price at a profit.

The best spreads on the GBP/USD are usually found during the best hours to trade the GBP/USD and on certain advanced trading accounts like Zero.MT4 - all of which are discussed further in the article.

Let's take a look at two possible trading scenarios, remembering that the ask price is a trader's buy price and the bid price is a trader's sell price, with an average spread of one pip:

Will GBP rise against USD?

If the trader buys at the ask price of 1.2737 and the GBP/USD quote moves to 1.2757 Bid / 1.2758 Ask, then the trader can exit at the bid price (the sell price) of 1.2757. This means the trader would have made 20 pips profit (1.2737 - 1.2757).

However, if the market went from 1.2737 back down to 1.2717 Bid / 1.2718 Ask, the trader will have lost 20 pips (1.2737 - 1.2717).

Will GBP fall against USD?

Forex traders can also profit from a falling market by initiating a sell, or short trade. For example, let's say the trader sells at 1.2736 and the British pound fell against the US dollar producing a new GBP/USD quote of 1.2715 Bid / 1.2716 Ask.

The trader can exit their trade at the ask price (the buy price) of 1.2716. This means the trader would have made 20 pips profit (1.2736 - 1.2706), as they shorted the GBP/USD predicting the market would go lower.

However, if the market went from their entry price of 1.2736 up to 1.2755 Bid / 1.2756 Ask, the trader will have lost 20 pips (1.2736 - 1.2756), as they shorted the currency pair expecting the pound to fall against the US dollar.

The next question for many aspiring traders then is what moves the GBP to USD exchange rate? Many traders believe that if they monitor the different influences on the GBP/USD exchange rate it can help in forecasting whether the currency pair will rise or fall.

If you think the GBP will rise or fall against the USD you can test trading ideas by making the trade on a free demo account! To open your FREE demo account, click the banner below:


What Creates Volatility in the GBP/USD?

As the United Kingdom is such a large trading nation, there are many factors which influence the price of the GBP/USD. International demand for the British pound, central bank policy, political tensions all plays a big part. Here are a few key fundamental and economic indicators to take into account:

  • The UK and US Economy - International demand for a currency will move toward economies that are strong and growing. Therefore, when the UK economy is looking strong and the US economy is looking weak, this could lead to a rise in the GBP/USD exchange rate.
  • Bank of England (BoE) Policy - The UK's central bank meets once a month to release the Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary report which details the reasons on why the members of the bank have decided to either cut interest rates, increase interest rates or keep them on hold. Typically, a currency will fall on the threat of interest rate cuts and rise on the optimism of rising interest rates.
  • Politics and Government - Political events can cause huge movements in a currency as we saw by the collapse of the British pound to US dollar exchange rate after the UK's vote to leave the EU called Brexit. Government elections and a change in political parties can also have a huge impact on the GBP/USD price.
  • Economic Data - While the above events can affect the long-term trends of the market, there are smaller economic data announcements that influence the GBP/USD price in the short-term. These are economic announcements such as retail sales, inflation and employment figures.

Check the GBP/USD Calendar While You Trade

Many short-term traders like to day trade the GBP/USD around high-impact news announcements to try and capture the volatility these news items may provide. Longer-term traders also like to track news announcements that can impact the GBP/USD to identify any trends in good or bad economic data. You will learn more about GBP/USD trading strategies further down the article.

How do you access an economic calendar so you can know about upcoming, potentially market-moving news announcements? One of the best ways is to use the Premium Analytics feature exclusively for Admiral Markets users.

First, you will need to open a live or demo trading account.

Once you have opened your Admiral Markets account visit the homepage and select Premium Analytics from the Analytics tab, as seen below:

Once logged in, expand the Economic Calendar found on the bottom left. You can use the Advanced Filter option to only list economic news items for the United Kingdom and the United States as these are the most likely to affect the GBP/USD.

From here we can view all the upcoming news items that are likely to affect the GBP/USD exchange rate price. Clicking on each of these will give you an explanation on what the news item is at the bottom left as well as what analysts are forecasting for the result. In the bottom right you can also find the latest news on the GBP/USD, powered by Dow Jones.

There are also a lot more features in the Premium Analytics and the Admiral Markets homepage that can help you in your trading decisions such as a Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis section, along with a Trader's Blog. Now you are armed with some of the most powerful tools in the business, the next step is to make sure you have the right trading account set up.

Once you have your trading account setup, it will allow you to follow the other tips in this article, including following the GBP/USD trading strategy, using technical analysis on the GBP/USD and following the tutorial on how to buy and sell the GBP/USD.

What is the Best Trading Account for GBP/USD?

Picking the best trading account for GBP/USD trading is a very important decision. With Admiral Markets there are three popular accounts types for trading the British pound US dollar exchange rate. These are:

The Trade.MT4 MT4 Trading Account

The Trade.MT4 MT4 trading account is a popular option for trading the GBP/USD on MetaTrader 4 - the world's most popular trading platform. Here are some more details:

  • Minimum deposit: 100 EUR / USD / GBP / CHF
  • Account balance currencies: EUR, GBP, USD, and more
  • Markets available: Currencies including the GBP/USD, Indices and Commodities
  • Spreads: GBP/USD minimum spread 0.1 pip, typical spread 1 pip
  • Commissions: Commission free
  • Platforms: MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader Web Trader, MetaTrader Mobile Trading

The Zero.MT4 and Zero.MT5 Trading Account

The Zero.MT4 and Zero.MT5 accounts are unique offerings for those who want to elevate their trading level on the GBP/USD in MetaTrader 4 or 5. The account is based on Admiral Markets' own STP technology so traders can trade directly with top-tier liquidity providers. Access to this advanced offering also comes with additional benefits:

  • Minimum deposit: 100 EUR / USD / GBP / CHF
  • Account balance currencies: EUR, GBP, USD and more
  • Markets available: Currencies, including the GBP/USD-ECN
  • Spreads: GBP/USD minimum spread 0.1 pip, typical spread 0.6 pips
  • Commissions: GBP/USD 3 USD per 1 lot (100,000 units of currency) per side
  • 200 maximum open orders in Zero.MT4, and 500 in Zero.MT5
  • Platform: MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader Web Trader, MetaTrader Mobile Trading

One of the major differences with the Zero.MT4 and Zero.MT5 accounts and others, is the fact the spreads start from 0 pips with an additional commission charge per lot, or 100,000 units of currency traded. With this account, you can also trade inside the spread value with no requirements on minimum volume (order can start from just 0.01 lot).

The lower cost of spread, lightning-fast execution and ability to trade in the interbank market makes this the go-to platform for serious Forex traders.

The Trade.MT5 Trading Account

The Trade.MT5 trading account is another popular account type for multi-asset class traders. One of the biggest differences is that the range of markets available on MetaTrader 5 is far bigger than that on MT4. There are some additional benefits as described below:

  • Minimum deposit: 100 EUR / USD / GBP / CHF
  • Account balance currencies: EUR, GBP, USD and more
  • Markets available: Currencies, Stock CFDs, Index CFDs, ETF CFDs, Bond CFDs, Cryptocurrency CFDs, Commodity CFDs
  • Spreads: GBP/USD minimum spread 0.1, typical spread 1 pip
  • Commissions: Commission free, apart from Stock and ETF CFDs at 0.01 USD per share with 1 USD minimum
  • Platform: MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader Web Trader, MetaTrader Mobile Trading
  • Market depth: Exclusive to MetaTrader 5, you can view the order book to assess the liquidity of the instrument you are viewing

Admiral Markets users also have access to the exclusive MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin packed full of advanced and highly useful tools in trading the GBP/USD, as the next section shows.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Learn when to buy the GBP/USD, or sell

So far, you have learnt that the GBP/USD exchange rate moves in pips and the major factors that influence the movement of the currency pair. Now that you also have access to one of the best trading accounts for Forex traders, as listed in the previous section, we can now focus on identifying the best time to trade the GBP/USD before going through how to buy and sell the currency pair in your trading platform.

Let's start by looking at a recent four-hour chart of the GBP/USD:

Disclaimer: Charts for financial instruments in this article are for illustrative purposes and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument provided by Admiral Markets (CFDs, ETFs, Shares). Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.


Traders will often use technical analysis to analyse the information on the chart. Essentially, a GBP/USD technical analysis process will involve looking at previous price action patterns and cycles to help determine what could happen next. Often, traders will also use trading indicators to help in their decision-making process of what is happening in the currency pair at the current moment in time and what could happen in the future.

Traders who have downloaded the free Admiral Markets MetaTrader Supreme Edition have an edge in using advanced tools to help with their GBP/USD technical analysis. Here are just a few tools that could prove to be effective:

GBP/USD MetaTrader Supreme Edition Symbol Info Indicator

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition, GBP/USD, H4 - Data range: from Jun 6, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:15 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

A powerful GBP/USD indicator is the Admiral Markets Symbol Info indicator which is part. To put this on a chart in MetaTrader, first, download the Admiral Markets' MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin. To learn how to do this, watch the video below: 

Once this has been downloaded, open your platform and follow the steps below to gain access to the Admiral Symbol Info indicator:

  1. Select the Trade Navigator window (Ctrl+N) which will open a side window on the left side of the chart.
  2. Find 'Admiral Symbol Info' in the window under Indicators -> Examples.
  3. Select the indicator by dragging and dropping on to the chart.
  4. Select Chart -> Indicators List -> Admiral Symbol Info if you would like to customise any settings.

In the settings above, it has been customised to quickly tell the trader where each of the different timeframes (Weekly, Daily, H4, H1, M30, M15, M5 and M1) are trading relative to a specific indicator. In this instance, they are:

  • EMAs - Exponential Moving Averages
  • MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
  • CCI - Commodity Channel Index

So how can GBP/USD traders use this to their advantage? Well, the first line in the Admiral Symbol Info indicator is the EMA20. As it has a blue circle under each of the timeframes it is saying that the price is above its respective 20 period moving average on those timeframes. The only red is the weekly chart which means that price is below the EMA20 on this timeframe.

When a market is trading above the EMA20 it is often seen as a bullish sign. This means that, in this example, the British pound to US dollar exchange rate is bullish on seven different timeframes suggesting the pound is much stronger than the dollar.

The Admiral Symbol Info is very useful in giving the trader quick information on the bullish, or bearishness of the GBP/USD on multiple timeframes and across multiple indicators.

GBP/USD MetaTrader Supreme Edition Sentiment Trader Indicator


Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition, GBP/USD, H4 - Data range: from Jun 6, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:15 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


Another powerful indicator is knowing the market sentiment on GBP/USD, which the Sentiment Trader indicator provides. To put this on the chart, after downloading the Admiral Markets MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin, follow these steps:

  1. Select the Trade Navigator window (Ctrl+N) which will open a side window on the left side of the chart.
  2. Find 'Sentiment Trader' in the window under Indicators -> Expert Advisors.
  3. Select the indicator by dragging and dropping on to the chart.

In this example, it is showing that the sentiment on the GBP/USD is 50% which is to be expected as the time it was taken is when the US session has closed and traders are waiting for Asia markets to open. This value is constantly fluctuating and could swing wildly in high volume trading hours when European and US desks are open, potentially giving the trader an additional edge in the market.

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to significantly enhance their trading experience by boosting the MetaTrader platform with MetaTrader Supreme Edition. Gain access to excellent additional features such as the correlation matrix, the latest real-time market data and insights from professional trading experts and other fantastic tools. Get all of this and much more by clicking the banner below and starting your FREE download!


How to Buy and Sell the GBP/USD

There are multiple ways to buy and sell the GBP/USD using the Admiral Markets MetaTrader platform. Advanced traders may use the 'one-click trading' function which - at just one click of a button - a trader can be in a live trade on the GBP/USD. However, to learn how to trade the GBP/USD, using orders may be the best place to start.

GBP/USD Live Trading Ticket

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition, GBP/USD, H4 - Data range: from Jun 3, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:15 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


Trade the GBP/USD with these following steps:

  1. Analyse the market using technical analysis, or the parameters of a trading strategy and determine whether you believe the market will go higher (buying) or go lower (selling).
  2. Right-click, select Trading then New Order. Alternatively, press F9 on your keyboard and a GBP/USD live trading ticket will pop up.
  3. Enter Volume value. This is how many units of currency you want to trade. 1 lot = 100,000 units of currency. The lowest volume value is 0.01 lots.
  4. Enter Stop Loss value. A stop-loss is used to exit the trade at a predetermined price level to minimise losses if the market moves against you.
  5. Enter Take Profit value. A take-profit is used to exit the trade at a predetermined price level to maximise any gains and close out any profit.
  6. Click 'Buy at Market' or 'Sell at Market' depending on which direction you believe the market will go.
  7. You can view, amend or close your live trade through the Terminal window (Ctrl+T) where you will find all your live trades, pending orders and account history.

GBP/USD Volatility and Daily Ranges

As there are many influences on the British pound US dollar exchange rate, the volatility of the currency pair can change significantly over time. GBP/USD volatility is evident through using the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, GBP/USD, Weekly - Data range: from June 10, 2012, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 11:36 am BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


The ATR indicator, as shown by the blue line in the chart above, shows the average range of the last fourteen bars for the timeframe displayed. It is clear to see the average range increasing early on and then peaking in the middle. This coincides with the Brexit announcement which massively increased volatility in the currency pair. The impact of Brexit on the GBP/USD was huge.

In fact, at the ATR's peak, the average weekly range for the GBP/USD was around 470 pips. The highest ATR reading for 2019 has been 276 pips. A massive reduction in volatility after the initial impact of Brexit on the GBP/USD subsides.

The ATR indicator can also help identify the best hours to trade the GBP/USD.

The Best Hours to Trade the GBP/USD


Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, GBP/USD, H1 - Data range: from June 3, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 9:57 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


In the hourly chart of the GBP/USD above, the ATR indicator continues to move around from peak to trough. This is because pound/dollar volatility is constantly changing as markets digest news items. However, traders may find the most amount of volatility occurs during major session opening hours and the least amount of volatility outside of these hours.

This is why many traders believe the best hours to trade the GBP/USD are during the opening hours of the major market sessions, even though you can trade the GBP/USD 24 hours a day, five days a week.

So what are the major session opening hours?

  • European session - 7am to 5pm BST
  • US session - 1pm to 9pm BST
  • Asia session - 12pm - 5am BST

A GBP/USD Trading Strategy Example

There are many popular types of trading strategies to trade the GBP/USD. The important part is to keep it simple and follow a process, rather than chasing the outcome you want, which can ultimately lead to building poor trading habits.

In order to keep it simple, let's use some well-known, popular tools to build the beginning of a possible GBP/USD price action trading strategy:

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, GBP/USD, H4 - Data range: from May 13, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:10 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


The above four-hour chart (H4) of the GBP/USD shows a 34-period exponential moving average (34 EMA) plotted on price. To put this on your chart, select the Insert tab at the top of the chart, then Indicators, Trend and Moving Average.

Then in the popup box input a period of 34 and MA method of Exponential and a Style of blue to colour the moving average line.

Moving average indicators are often used as a trend filter to quickly determine who is control of the market, buyers or sellers, thereby giving us a set of rules to start with:

  • Rule 1: Go long when the price is above the 34 EMA.
  • Rule 2: Go short when the price is below the 34 EMA.

Now we have a possible directional bias, how do we time a trade? This is where price action trading becomes useful. There are many patterns that can be used in price action trading, two of the most common candlestick patterns are 'the hammer' and 'shooting star'.

The hammer price action trading pattern, as shown above, is a bullish signal which signifies the failure of sellers to close the market at a new low and buyers surging back into the market, to close near the high.

The shooting star price action trading pattern, as shown above, is the opposite of the hammer pattern. It's a bearish signal which signifies the failure of buyers to close the market at a new high, and sellers surging back into the market, to close near the low.

We can now further elaborate on our rules:

  • Rule 1: Go long when the price is above the 34 EMA and hammer price action pattern is formed.
  • Rule 2: Go short when the price is below the 34 EMA and shooting start price action pattern is formed.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 4, GBP/USD, H4 - Data range: from May 13, 2019, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:15 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


The chart above highlights occurrences of both rule one and rule two. In most cases, the market continued to trade in the direction of the moving average and price action pattern suggestion. There will be occasions where your chosen trading rules will be less effective and result in losing trades, as in some of the yellow boxes above. This is why risk management and using a stop loss will prove to be beneficial in the long run.

This strategy has not been tested historically for its effectiveness, it merely serves as a starting point to build upon. Traders can take this one step further by experimenting with different moving average values, learning additional price action patterns in the Admiral Markets Educational library, adjust the timeframes and use the advanced tools from the MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin.

While a GBP/USD trading strategy can prove to be effective it is also important to understand the bigger picture opportunities as well.

Opportunities on the GBP/USD Forecast for 2020

2020 could be a historic year for the GBP/USD trading with Great Britain finally leaving the European Union. Over the year 2019, the turmoil in the UK government continued with Boris Johnson becoming the successor of Theresa May.

Johnson didn't get the Brexit deal, as promised, finalised, but EU leaders at least agreed on a flexible extension of the Brexit date from October 31, 2019, to the end of January 2020. Depending on the resulting outcome and impact on the UK economy, which will naturally affect the monetary policy of the BoE, there should be plenty of opportunities on the GBP/USD for the flexible trader looking at the big picture.

Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5, GBP/USD, Weekly - Data range: from Oct 1, 2017, to June 24, 2019, accessed on June 24, 2019, at 10:30 pm BST. - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.


The weekly chart of the GBP/USD above shows the currency pair trading currently trading in a regressive mode, correcting most of its losses which occurred over Q2 and Q3 in 2019. But below 1.3350/3400, bears stay in control and only a sustainable break back above 1.3400 would brighten the overall technical picture.

Fundamentally, if the UK political landscape can improve, and certainty can be provided through a clear direction on Brexit, there may be a case on why the GBP/USD may rise in the long run. However, if the situation worsens, forcing the BoE to aggressively loosen monetary policy, a drop below 1.2000 with a minimum target around 1.1500 could be likely.

Why trade the GBP/USD with Admiral Markets?

If you trade the dollar-pound Forex pair with Admiral Markets, you can:

  • Trade 24 hours a day, five days a week.
  • Use leverage of up to 1:500 for Professional clients and up to 1:30 for Retail clients.
  • Trade with a well-established, highly regulated company including regulation from the highly respected UK's Financial Conduct Authority.
  • Access the fastest and most secure trading platforms from MetaTrader on desktop, web or mobile.
  • Trade with institutional grade spreads as low as 0 pips with Zero.MT4 and connect directly with tier one liquidity providers.
  • Access the Admiral Markets MetaTrader Supreme Edition plugin for advanced trading tools such as the Sentiment Trader and Advanced Order functionality completely free!
  • Benefit from our negative balance protection policy for peace of mind.

If you're feeling inspired to start trading, or this article has provided some extra insight to your existing trading knowledge, you may be pleased to know that Admiral Markets provides the ability to trade with Forex and CFDs on up to 80+ currencies, with the latest market updates and technical analysis provided for FREE! Click the banner below to open your live account today!

Other articles that might interest you:

About Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets is a multi-award winning, globally regulated Forex and CFD broker, offering trading on over 8,000 financial instruments via the world's most popular trading platforms: MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5. Start trading today!

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.

Jitanchandra Solanki
Jitanchandra Solanki Financial Markets Author, Admirals London

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.