FTSE 100 Forecast 2026 and 2027: Where Is the UK Index Headed?
The FTSE 100 traded near 10,740 on the morning of 21 October 2026, according to Trading Economics. That is about 1.6% below its record close of 10,910.55 from 27 February 2026. The index has also had weaker spells this year, including a sharp fall in March. Data as at 21 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
One widely reported FTSE 100 analyst forecast comes from UBS. It sees 11,200 by December 2026 and 11,500 by June 2027, with a bull case of 12,300 and a bear case of 7,700, according to Proactive Investors. The next few weeks are busy. The Autumn Budget lands on 28 October and the Bank of England decides on 5 November.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- FTSE 100 Forecast at a Glance
- FTSE 100 Today: Market Snapshot on 21 October 2026
- How Has the FTSE 100 Performed?
- FTSE 100 Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets
- What Drives the FTSE 100 Outlook in 2026 and 2027?
- Inside the Index: Weights and Fund Flows
- FTSE 100 Technical Analysis and Key Levels
- Key Events for the FTSE 100 Week Ahead and Beyond
- FTSE 100 Scenarios for the End of 2026 and 2027
- FTSE 100 Tailwinds and Headwinds
- How Different FTSE 100 Sectors Tend to React
- How Traders Often Approach the FTSE 100
- Frequently Asked Questions
This article looks at the numbers behind the FTSE 100 outlook. It covers the energy shock and UK inflation. It also looks at gilt yields. Later sections set out key price levels and the event calendar, followed by illustrative scenarios for 2026 and 2027.
FTSE 100 Forecast at a Glance
The table below gathers the figures that matter most for the FTSE 100 forecast 2026 and the FTSE 100 forecast 2027.
| Item | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 level | About 10,740 | 21 Oct 2026, morning |
| Close on 20 October | 10,732 | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Change in 2026 so far | About +8.1% | to 20 Oct 2026 close |
| Record close | 10,910.55 | 27 Feb 2026 |
| Record intraday high | 10,989.45 | 31 Jul 2026 |
| 2026 intraday low | Below 9,770 | 23 Mar 2026 |
| UBS target | 11,200 | December 2026 |
| UBS target | 11,500 | June 2027 |
| UK CPI inflation | 3.5% | September 2026 |
| Bank Rate | 3.75% | held at the 17 Sep 2026 decision |
| UK 10-year gilt | About 5.44% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Brent crude | $110.01 | 21 Oct 2026, morning |
Sources: Trading Economics, Wikipedia (FTSE 100 Index), Proactive Investors, Bank of England. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
In short, the index sits close to its highs. The UBS base case sits a little above the current level. Interest rates and the Budget could move the index in either direction.
FTSE 100 Today: Market Snapshot on 21 October 2026
Trading Economics reported that the index traded lower for a third session on 21 October. Its later reference quote showed the index little changed. UK inflation came in above forecasts. Public borrowing also overshot the official projection.
| Market | Level | Change | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,737 | +0.04% | 21 Oct, intraday (Trading Economics CFD-based reference quote) |
| FTSE 100 early trade | Down 0.24% | -0.24% | 21 Oct, 03:18 ET (08:18 BST) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3379 | -0.02% | 21 Oct, morning report |
| Brent crude | $110.01 | +1.12% | 21 Oct, morning report |
| WTI crude | $98.84 | +1.04% | 21 Oct, morning report |
| Spot gold | $4,115.23 | -0.25% | 21 Oct, morning report |
Sources: Trading Economics, Investing.com. Prices move during the day and may differ from later quotes. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why Is the FTSE 100 Down Today?
UK consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August. Economists had expected 3.4%, according to Investing.com. Petrol averaged 169.5p a litre, the highest since August 2022.
Government borrowing reached £97.8bn in April to September. That is £6bn above the March forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, Trading Economics reported. Trading Economics said the inflation figure increases pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates.
| Stock | Move on 21 Oct | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| 3i | -5.3% at the open | Financials |
| Rio Tinto | -2.8% | Mining |
| Lloyds | -1.2% | Banks |
| HSBC | -1.0% | Banks |
| BP | +1.8% at the open | Energy |
| SSE | +1.8% | Utilities |
| National Grid | +1.6% | Utilities |
| Ithaca Energy | +4.2% at the open | Energy |
Source: Trading Economics, intraday moves on 21 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
On the day, rate-sensitive banks and miners slipped. Utilities and some energy names gained.
How Has the FTSE 100 Performed?
Record highs make headlines. The five-year record gives the fuller picture, with two weak years in the middle.
Five-Year Performance: 2021 to 2025
| Year | Year-end close | Price change | Total return (ISF ETF proxy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7,384.54 | +14.30% | +17.7% |
| 2022 | 7,451.74 | +0.91% | +4.8% |
| 2023 | 7,733.24 | +3.78% | +7.7% |
| 2024 | 8,173.02 | +5.69% | +9.4% |
| 2025 | 9,931.38 | +21.51% | +26.0% |
Sources: Wikipedia (FTSE 100 Index annual returns), ChartRow (iShares Core FTSE 100 year-by-year returns). Period 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2025. Total return includes dividends and is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 2025 gain was the best since 2009. It came after three years of single-digit price gains. The ETF column shows FTSE 100 total return including dividends. These figures are before taxes and costs, which may vary.
2026 So Far: Records and a Sharp Spring Dip
| Milestone | Level | Date |
|---|---|---|
| First trade above 10,000 | 10,052 intraday | 2 Jan 2026 |
| Record close | 10,910.55 | 27 Feb 2026 |
| 2026 intraday low | Below 9,770 | 23 Mar 2026 |
| Record intraday high | 10,989.45 | 31 Jul 2026 |
| Q3 2026 | +1.1%, seventh quarterly gain in a row | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Close on 20 October | 10,732 | 20 Oct 2026 |
Sources: FXStreet, Wikipedia, Trading Economics (23 March), Hargreaves Lansdown (31 July), Trading Economics (Q3). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The March low came during the sell-off that followed the start of the conflict involving Iran. From that low, the index has recovered about 10%. The FTSE 100 record high on a closing basis still dates from February.
FTSE 100 Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets
Bank strategists publish index targets a few times a year. They change as earnings and rates change. Each one is best read as a snapshot.
| Forecaster | Target | Horizon | Published | Implied move from 10,740 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS (base) | 11,200 | December 2026 | 21 Aug 2026 | About +4.3% |
| UBS (base) | 11,500 | June 2027 | 21 Aug 2026 | About +7.1% |
| UBS (bull case) | 12,300 | June 2027 | 21 Aug 2026 | About +14.5% |
| UBS (bear case) | 7,700 | Not stated | 21 Aug 2026 | About -28.3% |
| UBS (earlier) | Raised on a stronger earnings outlook | December 2026 | 24 Apr 2026 | Superseded |
Sources: Proactive Investors (21 Aug 2026), Investing.com (24 Apr 2026). Implied moves are calculated from about 10,740 on 21 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The UBS Bull and Bear Cases
UBS keeps the UK market at neutral, Proactive Investors reported. Its bull case relies on faster global growth or higher commodity prices. A weaker pound could also help.
The bear case of 7,700 reflects prolonged energy disruption in the Middle East. Renewed trade wars or sharply higher bond yields are also on the list. The gap between the two cases is wide. It shows how uncertain any FTSE 100 price target is.
Will the FTSE 100 Hit 11,000?
The index has come within about 10 points of 11,000 once, on 31 July. A close above 10,910.55 would be a new record. Round numbers such as 11,000 often draw attention from market commentators. Any move towards that level would depend on factors such as earnings and gilt markets, and it may not happen.
Where Will the FTSE 100 Be at the End of 2026?
The UBS base case of 11,200 implies a gain of about 4% from current levels, if it were reached. Any FTSE 100 year end forecast depends heavily on the Budget and the November rate decision. A failed test of the highs could leave the index inside its recent range.
What Drives the FTSE 100 Outlook in 2026 and 2027?
The index is unusual among major markets. Around 75% to 80% of its revenue comes from outside the UK, according to UBS via Proactive. Commodity sectors make up about 20% of index earnings. This mix shapes how it reacts to news.
Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz
Brent first rose above $100 on 8 March, according to the hormuz.now timeline. It traded at $110.01 on 21 October, per Investing.com. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted on 19 and 20 October, the same timeline shows.
High oil helps the energy majors. Interactive investor noted that Shell and BP gained during the first 100 days of the conflict. Airlines and housebuilders were among the sectors under pressure. Admirals covered the oil side in Brent crude oil CFD above $110.
The oil link cuts both ways. A reopening of the strait could lower inflation and gilt yields. That may help banks and housebuilders. It could also weigh on Shell and BP, which together make up about 12.7% of the index, based on ETF holdings data.
UK Inflation and the Bank of England
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September. The vote was 6 to 3, with three members backing a rise to 4%, according to the Bank of England. The Committee said it stands ready to act as necessary.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation | 3.5% (Sep 2026) | 3.1% (Aug 2026) | Investing.com |
| Core CPI | 2.8% (Sep 2026) | Matched forecasts | Investing.com |
| Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | Bank of England |
| MPC vote (Sep) | 6 hold, 3 hike | Not applicable | Bank of England |
| Unemployment | 4.7% (Aug 2026) | 4.9% | Trading Economics |
Data as at 21 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point hike in November, The Standard reported in September. Higher rates can support bank margins. They can also squeeze borrowers and weigh on share valuations.
Gilt Yields and the Fiscal Squeeze
The 10-year gilt reached 5.527% on 8 October, the highest since 2007. The 30-year gilt hit 6.047%, the highest since 1998, according to ROIC.ai. The 10-year yield was about 5.44% on 20 October, per Trading Economics.
High gilt yields matter for shares. They raise the return investors can get from bonds. They also lift borrowing costs for companies and households.
The Autumn Budget and the Bank Surcharge
Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget on 28 October. ING estimates that fiscal headroom has fallen to around £10bn from £24bn in March. It expects £5bn to £6bn of tax rises, likely including a higher Bank Surcharge, according to ING via FXStreet.
| Bank | Share of group profits eligible for the UK surcharge | Q3 results date |
|---|---|---|
| Lloyds | About 85% | 29 Oct 2026 |
| NatWest | About 85% | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Barclays | 33% | 22 Oct 2026 |
| HSBC | 20% | 27 Oct 2026 |
Source: interactive investor (15 Oct 2026).
UBS estimates that doubling the current 3% surcharge would cut domestic bank profits by 3% to 4%, according to interactive investor. Admirals looked at currency and index scenarios in UK Budget on 28 October.
HSBC alone makes up about 9.4% of the iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF, based on ETF holdings data. A bank tax change and a rate decision a week apart could therefore have a noticeable effect on the FTSE 100 outlook 2026.
The Pound and Overseas Earnings
Sterling traded at $1.3379 early on 21 October, per Investing.com. A weaker pound raises the sterling value of overseas profits. A stronger pound has the opposite effect. UBS lists a softer pound among its bull case drivers.
Earnings and Valuation
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| UBS UK earnings growth forecast 2026 | 16% (raised from 11%) |
| UBS UK earnings growth forecast 2027 | About 9% |
| Forward P/E | 12.7 times |
| Median forward P/E since 1990 | 12.8 times |
| Revenue earned outside the UK | About 75% to 80% |
| Commodity share of earnings | About 20% |
Source: UBS estimates via Proactive Investors (21 Aug 2026). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
On these figures, the index trades close to its long-run average valuation. UBS expects earnings growth to slow in 2027 as comparisons get tougher. UBS also expects weaker commodity prices next year.
Global Rates and Growth
The US Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, as covered in Fed raised interest rates. The next Fed decision is on 28 October. The IMF lifted its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% from 1.0%, Investment Week reported. It cut its 2027 projection.
Inside the Index: Weights and Fund Flows
FTSE 100 Top 10 Companies by Weight
| Company | Weight | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 9.4% | Banks |
| Shell | 9.0% | Energy |
| AstraZeneca | 7.3% | Pharmaceuticals |
| Rolls-Royce | 4.4% | Aerospace |
| Unilever | 4.0% | Consumer staples |
| BP | 3.8% | Energy |
| British American Tobacco | 3.5% | Tobacco |
| GSK | 2.9% | Pharmaceuticals |
| Rio Tinto | 2.7% | Mining |
| Lloyds | 2.4% | Banks |
Source: Lightyear, iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF holdings (data modified 21 Oct 2026). ETF weights are a proxy for index weights.
The top 10 holdings add up to about 49% of the fund. You can read more about individual names in FTSE 100 stocks.
September 2026 Index Review
| Change | Company |
|---|---|
| Added | easyJet |
| Added | Ithaca Energy |
| Removed | Entain |
| Removed | Persimmon |
Source: LSEG, FTSE UK Index Series quarterly review September 2026. Changes took effect on 21 September 2026.
Concentration and Fund Flows
UBS found that 10 stocks drove more than three-quarters of the index's 12-month return in April, according to Investing.com. That makes the index sensitive to a small group of companies.
UK equity funds saw outflows of £601m in August, according to Calastone. Equity funds as a whole had their 14th month of outflows in 15. Domestic retail demand has stayed weak despite the records.
FTSE 100 Technical Analysis and Key Levels
The index has moved in a rough range of 10,400 to 11,000 since late July. It stalled near its highs in February. It stalled again in July.
| Level | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Record intraday high | 10,989 | 31 Jul 2026 |
| Record close | 10,910.55 | 27 Feb 2026 |
| Resistance zone | 10,875 to 10,898 | Intraday plan, 21 Oct |
| Resistance | 10,837 | Intraday plan, 21 Oct |
| Resistance zone | 10,770 to 10,795 | Intraday plan, 21 Oct |
| Pivot | 10,724 to 10,735 | Intraday plan, 21 Oct |
| Support | 10,704 | Intraday plan, 21 Oct |
| Support zone | 10,420 to 10,490 | Early October low |
| Major support | About 9,770 | 2026 low, 23 Mar |
Sources: Hilsden Trading (21 Oct 2026), Wikipedia, Trading Economics. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Momentum Readings
The daily RSI stood at 56.5 on 21 October, per Hilsden Trading. That is neutral territory. The price also sat above its main daily moving averages.
What Traders Often Watch
- A daily close above 10,910.55 would mark a new record close.
- A break of 10,700 could bring the 10,420 to 10,490 zone back into focus.
- Some chartists may treat the 9,770 low as a reference point for the wider trend.
These levels are for illustration. Markets can move through them quickly on news.
Key Events for the FTSE 100 Week Ahead and Beyond
UK clocks go back on 25 October. US clocks change on 1 November. Times below allow for both changes.
| Date | Event | UK time | US Eastern time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct | Barclays Q3 results | Morning | Early morning |
| Tue 27 Oct | HSBC Q3 results | Morning | Early morning |
| Wed 28 Oct | UK Autumn Budget | Around midday | Morning |
| Wed 28 Oct | Fed decision | 18:00 GMT | 14:00 EDT |
| Thu 29 Oct | Shell Q3 results | 07:00 GMT | 03:00 EDT |
| Thu 29 Oct | Lloyds Q3 results | Morning | Early morning |
| Fri 30 Oct | BP and AstraZeneca Q3 results | 07:00 GMT | 03:00 EDT |
| Fri 30 Oct | NatWest Q3 results | Morning | Early morning |
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England decision | 12:00 GMT | 07:00 EST |
| Thu 12 Nov | UK GDP, Q3 first estimate | 07:00 GMT | 02:00 EST |
| Wed 18 Nov | UK CPI for October | 07:00 GMT | 02:00 EST |
| Thu 17 Dec | Final Bank of England decision of 2026 | 12:00 GMT | 07:00 EST |
Sources: interactive investor, ING via FXStreet, Shell, bp, AstraZeneca, Bank of England, ONS (GDP), ONS (CPI), Cambridge Currencies, Admirals (Fed). Dates can change.
The Admirals economic calendar lists release times for the data events above. The last week of October has several scheduled events for UK markets.
FTSE 100 Scenarios for the End of 2026 and 2027
The scenarios below are illustrative. They show how different triggers could affect the index. They are not predictions.
| Scenario | Possible triggers | Illustrative range |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Budget avoids a large bank tax, gilts ease, strong energy and bank results | Close above 10,910.55, then 11,000 to 11,200 by December |
| Base | One rate hike priced in, Brent between $100 and $115, modest tax rises | 10,400 to 11,000 |
| Bear | Gilt sell-off after the Budget, several rate hikes, global equity sell-off | Retest of 10,400, then 9,770 |
| Severe bear | Prolonged energy disruption or sharply higher bond yields | Towards the UBS bear case of 7,700, horizon unstated |
Based on UBS via Proactive and the levels in this article. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
A sudden drop in oil belongs on the risk list too. It could lower inflation. It could also pull down the energy heavyweights at the same time.
FTSE 100 Tailwinds and Headwinds
| Tailwinds | Headwinds |
|---|---|
| UBS raised 2026 UK earnings growth to 16% | Earnings growth expected to slow to about 9% in 2027 |
| Valuation near the long-run median | Gilt yields at multi-decade highs |
| High oil supports Shell and BP | High oil lifts UK inflation |
| Most revenue earned abroad | A stronger pound would reduce overseas profits in sterling |
| Higher rates can support bank margins | A higher bank surcharge could cut bank profits |
| Seven quarterly gains in a row to Q3 | Persistent outflows from UK equity funds |
Sources: Proactive Investors, ROIC.ai, Calastone, interactive investor, Trading Economics (Q3).
How Different FTSE 100 Sectors Tend to React
| Driver | Sectors that have often gained | Sectors that have often lost |
|---|---|---|
| Higher oil | Energy | Airlines and housebuilders |
| Higher UK rates | Banks (margins) | Housebuilders and property |
| Higher gilt yields | Insurers in some cases | Utilities and long-duration growth |
| Weaker pound | Overseas earners | Domestic importers |
| Lower oil | Consumer and travel | Energy |
Illustrative summary based on interactive investor and Proactive Investors. Past reactions may not repeat.
A FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250 comparison shows this well. The smaller index has more domestic companies, as explained in FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250.
How Traders Often Approach the FTSE 100
Following the Calendar
Markets have often reacted most sharply around scheduled events. Traders often note results dates and central bank decisions in advance. Some cut position sizes before major releases to manage risk.
Ways to Gain Exposure
| Route | How it works | Main points to consider |
|---|---|---|
| Index CFD | Trade price moves on margin | Leverage magnifies gains and losses |
| ETF | Buy a fund that tracks the index | Fund fees and market risk apply |
| Single shares | Buy large constituents directly | Higher company-specific risk |
General overview for education only.
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex, indices and commodities, including the FTSE 100 cash CFD (UK100). You can see the full range on the index CFDs page. CFDs can be traded on MetaTrader 5. For longer-term routes, see how to invest in the FTSE 100.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
A demo account uses virtual funds; results may differ from live trading. It can help with learning how a platform works.
Risk Management Points Traders Often Use
- Many traders set a stop-loss level before they open a position.
- Some limit the share of capital at risk on any single trade.
- Traders often check margin needs ahead of volatile events.
- Gaps at the open can move prices past stop levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FTSE 100 forecast for 2026?
UBS targets 11,200 by December 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance and can change.
What is the FTSE 100 forecast for 2027?
UBS sees 11,500 by June 2027. Its bull case is 12,300 and its bear case 7,700. Forecasts can change.
What is the FTSE 100 record high?
The record close is 10,910.55 from 27 February 2026. The intraday record is 10,989.45 from 31 July 2026.
How much is the FTSE 100 up this year?
The index rose about 8.1% in 2026 to 20 October. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why is the FTSE 100 falling?
UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, raising the chance of a Bank of England rate hike in November.
How will the Budget affect the FTSE 100?
A higher bank surcharge could weigh on Lloyds and NatWest. Gilt reactions on 28 October could also move the index.
How does the oil price affect the FTSE 100?
Higher oil has often lifted Shell and BP. It also raises inflation, which can weigh on consumer stocks.
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