The Top ETFs to Watch for the Rest of 2026 and Into 2027
The top ETFs to watch for the rest of 2026 are funds linked to the forces moving markets right now. This guide reviews five well-known UCITS ETFs. Two track US large caps and US technology. Two more cover European banks and global dividend payers. The fifth tracks India.
The backdrop has changed sharply this year. Brent crude traded at $108.91 a barrel at 09:10 on 21 October (OilPrice.com page time), according to OilPrice.com. The US Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September 2026, as Admirals reported. Some ETFs have gained in this setting, while others have fallen. Data as at 21 October 2026.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- The Top ETFs for 2026 at a Glance
- What Is Driving ETF Markets in October 2026?
- Market Snapshot: Where Prices Stand Today
- 1. Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (VUSA)
- 2. iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX)
- 3. iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS ETF (EXV1)
- 4. SPDR S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (ZPRG)
- 5. iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF (NDIA)
- Theme ETFs Outside the Main Five
- Five-Year Performance of the Top ETFs
- S&P 500 Forecast: What Analysts Expect for 2026 and 2027
- Illustrative Scenarios for the Months Ahead
- Key Dates for ETF Investors
- Main Risks to Watch
- How to Choose an ETF
- How to Invest in ETFs With Admirals
- Frequently Asked Questions
In short, US equity ETFs have held up well among the five, helped by strong company earnings. The S&P 500 closed at 7,712.57 on 20 October, up 12.7% this year, according to AP via La Nacion. India has been the weakest. The iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF was down 14.33% in US dollars by 19 October. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
What counts as a top ETF depends on each investor's goals and time horizon. It also depends on how much risk they can accept. The sections below set out the facts and the risks of each fund, so readers can form their own view.
The Top ETFs for 2026 at a Glance
The table compares the five funds on cost and size. It also shows how each has performed so far this year.
| ETF | Ticker | TER | Fund size | 2026 so far | Main theme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Dist) | VUSA | 0.07% | $88.97bn (30 Sep) | +12.55% (USD, to 30 Sep) | US large caps |
| iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) | CNDX | 0.30% | $31.02bn (19 Oct) | +17.16% (USD, to 19 Oct) | US technology |
| iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS ETF (DE) | EXV1 | 0.46% | €2,879m (20 Oct) | +14.24% (EUR, to 20 Oct) | European banks |
| SPDR S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (Dist) | ZPRG | 0.45% | $1,746.6m (20 Oct) | +7.31% (USD, to 30 Sep) | Global dividends |
| iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF (Acc) | NDIA | 0.65% | $4.89bn (19 Oct) | -14.33% (USD, to 19 Oct) | India |
Sources: Vanguard UK, iShares (CNDX), iShares (EXV1), State Street (ZPRG), iShares (NDIA). Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The chart below shows the S&P 500 CFD, a close proxy for the index that VUSA tracks.
What Is Driving ETF Markets in October 2026?
Three forces stand behind many of this year's ETF moves. The first is an energy shock. The second is a return to rate hikes. The third is a rise in bond yields.
Oil and Inflation Have Picked Up Again
The war with Iran began on 28 February 2026, and oil has been volatile since. On 20 October Brent touched $111.99 before settling at $108.79, as Admirals noted. Higher fuel costs have fed into consumer prices across major economies.
| Economy | Latest CPI (September 2026) | Previous month | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.7% | Above the 3.6% forecast, core 2.6% | |
| Euro area | 3.8% | 3.2% | Energy was the biggest contributor |
| United Kingdom | 3.5% | 3.1% | Core 2.8%, motor fuels +29.8% year on year |
Sources: InvestingLive, Eunews, ONS.
Central Banks Have Turned to Rate Hikes
The Fed lifted its target range to 3.75%-4.00% in a 12-0 vote. It was the first increase since July 2023, according to InvestingLive. Other central banks have moved in the same direction.
| Central bank | Policy rate | Latest move | Next decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.75%-4.00% | +0.25 points on 16 Sep 2026 | 28 Oct 2026 |
| European Central Bank | 2.50% deposit rate | Hike in September 2026 | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | Held on 17 Sep (6-3 vote, three for a hike) | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of India | 5.50% | +0.25 points on 7 Oct 2026 |
Sources: Admirals (ECB), MTS Insights (BoE), Swarajya (RBI), Federal Reserve calendar.
Markets priced a hold from both the Fed and the ECB at their late October meetings. That was the picture on 19 October, according to Admirals. Global Banking and Finance reported a Reuters poll in which 64 of 73 economists expect an ECB hike in December.
Bond Yields Have Climbed Above 5%
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.10% on 15 October, according to Tapeboard. Higher yields matter for ETFs in several ways. They can raise the discount rate applied to future tech profits. They can also hurt bank bond portfolios and weigh on countries that import most of their oil.
Record Money Is Flowing Into ETFs
Demand for ETFs has kept growing despite the volatility. Global inflows reached a record for the period, according to ETFGI. State Street expects a record year for US ETFs.
| Measure | Figure | Period | Provider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global ETF assets | $24.03trn | End of August 2026 | ETFGI |
| Global net inflows | $1.96trn | January to August 2026 | ETFGI |
| US ETF inflows in August | $180bn | August 2026 | State Street |
| US dividend ETF inflows | $54bn | 2026 to end of August | State Street |
| Projected US inflows for 2026 | $2.3trn | Full year 2026 | State Street |
Sources: Markets Media (ETFGI), InvestmentNews (State Street). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Market Snapshot: Where Prices Stand Today
The table below gives the latest closing levels for the main markets behind the five ETFs. Each figure carries its own date and time.
| Market | Level | Daily change | 2026 so far | Time stamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,712.57 | +0.3% | +12.7% | Close 20 Oct, 16:00 ET (21:00 BST) |
| Brent (Dec contract) | $108.91 | 21 Oct, 09:10 (OilPrice.com page time) | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1238 | -4.1% | Close 20 Oct |
Sources: AP via La Nacion, OilPrice.com, Pound Sterling Live. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
1. Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (VUSA)
The Vanguard fund is a UCITS S&P 500 ETF with $88.97bn in assets at 30 September 2026. It tracks about 500 of the biggest US companies. Its ongoing charge of 0.07% is the lowest of the five funds in this guide.
VUSA Key Facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISIN | IE00B3XXRP09 |
| Ongoing charge | 0.07% |
| Holdings | 504 |
| Fund size | $88.97bn, of which this share class $52.64bn (30 Sep 2026) |
| Distribution | Pays income, last $0.3096 per share (ex-date 17 Sep 2026) |
| 12-month trailing yield | 0.87% (30 Sep 2026) |
| 2026 so far | +12.55% in USD (to 30 Sep 2026) |
Source: Vanguard UK. Yields and returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Top Holdings and Concentration
The ten largest holdings make up about 39% of the fund. The top three names hold about 21.5% between them.
| Company | Weight (30 Sep 2026) |
|---|---|
| Nvidia | 8.37% |
| Apple | 7.36% |
| Microsoft | 5.77% |
| Amazon | 3.70% |
| Alphabet A | 3.06% |
| Broadcom | 2.53% |
| Alphabet C | 2.45% |
| Meta | 2.42% |
| Micron | 1.82% |
| Tesla | 1.51% |
Source: Vanguard UK.
Company results are a key support. FactSet reported on 16 October that 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far beat earnings estimates. Only 9% of companies had reported at that point. Blended third-quarter earnings growth stood at 29.0%, according to FactSet. The forward P/E ratio was 19.0, close to its five-year average of 19.8.
S&P 500 Levels Traders Often Watch
The index slipped below its 50-day and 100-day averages in mid-October. It then closed just above the 200-day average on 20 October.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Record close | 7,818.93 (6 Oct 2026) | First close above 7,800 |
| 50-day SMA | 7,751.48 | First resistance cluster |
| 100-day SMA | 7,747.77 | Part of the same cluster |
| 200-day SMA | 7,707.32 | Long-term trend gauge |
| 16 Oct close | 7,659.44 | Recent support |
| RSI (14) | 43.4 | Below the neutral 50 line |
Sources: Investing.com (data at 00:02 GMT on 20 October, may be delayed), MetaTradingClub. Technical levels are shown for illustration only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Some traders watch the zone around 7,750, where two moving averages sit. Several bank targets sit near 8,000, above the record close. The 16 October close of 7,659.44 is a reference point below. Technical levels can fail, and prices can move through them quickly.
VUSA Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Very low ongoing charge of 0.07% | Heavy weight in a few large tech names |
| Broad spread across 504 holdings | Exposed to the US dollar for UK and EU investors |
| Strong earnings growth in 2026 | The S&P 500 fell 18.11% in 2022 |
| Large fund size of $88.97bn | Higher bond yields can weigh on share prices |
Source: Vanguard UK, FactSet, Slickcharts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Readers who want more background can read the Admirals guide to S&P 500 ETFs.
2. iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX)
CNDX tracks the Nasdaq 100, which holds the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq. It is the most tech-heavy fund in this review. It can rise faster than broader funds in a strong tech market. It can also fall further in a weak one.
CNDX Key Facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISIN | IE00B53SZB19 |
| TER | 0.30% |
| Holdings | 101 |
| Fund size | $31.02bn (19 Oct 2026) |
| Income | Accumulating (dividends reinvested) |
| Information technology weight | 57.41% (19 Oct 2026) |
| 2026 so far | +17.16% in USD (to 19 Oct 2026) |
Source: iShares. Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Nasdaq 100 ETF Holdings
The top ten names made up 46.15% of the fund at 31 August 2026. Micron and AMD sit among them, which shows the large weight of chipmakers in the index.
| Company | Weight (31 Aug 2026) |
|---|---|
| Nvidia | 8.48% |
| Apple | 7.39% |
| Microsoft | 5.98% |
| Micron | 4.74% |
| Amazon | 4.44% |
| AMD | 3.36% |
| Alphabet A | 3.14% |
| Tesla | 2.92% |
| Alphabet C | 2.91% |
| Broadcom | 2.79% |
Source: justETF.
The AI Trade Under Pressure
US technology shares sold off sharply on 16 October. Hargreaves Lansdown linked the drop to doubts about AI spending and rising borrowing costs, as its market report explains. AI shares recovered some of their losses on 19 October, according to AP via La Nacion.
The weeks ahead bring a key test for the fund. Meta and Tesla report on 21 October. Microsoft and Alphabet follow on 28 October. Amazon reports on 29 October and Apple on 2 November, according to BloFin.
The Admirals daily note on the Nasdaq 100 covers the latest index moves.
CNDX Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Direct exposure to leading AI and chip companies | Top ten names make up 46.15% of the fund |
| Accumulating units with a TER of 0.30% | Fell 32.7% in 2022 when rates rose |
| Holds 101 large Nasdaq companies | Sensitive to higher bond yields |
| Large fund size of $31.02bn | TER of 0.30% is higher than the 0.07% of VUSA |
Sources: iShares, justETF. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
3. iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS ETF (EXV1)
EXV1 tracks the largest banks in Europe. Bank shares tend to move with interest rates and bond markets. The fund gained 75.3% in 2025 after a rise of 33.7% in 2024, according to iShares. It lost 7.53% over the past month, according to justETF, as bond markets came under strain. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
EXV1 Key Facts and Holdings
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISIN | DE000A0F5UJ7 |
| TER | 0.46% |
| Fund size | €2,879m (20 Oct 2026) |
| Holdings | 62 (20 Oct 2026) |
| Distribution yield | 3.91% (20 Oct 2026) |
| 2026 so far | +14.24% (EUR, to 20 Oct 2026) |
| Last month | -7.53% (EUR, justETF) |
| Top five holdings | HSBC 14.38%, Santander 8.73%, BBVA 6.62%, UniCredit 5.95%, BNP Paribas 5.01% |
Sources: iShares, justETF, last month and top five holdings (at 31 August 2026) from justETF, accessed 21 October 2026. The distribution yield and returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why Have European Banks Fallen Since September?
European bank shares lost more than 7% in a month from their early September peak. Il Sole 24 Ore linked the fall to record bond yields and wider spreads on Italian and Spanish debt, as its report explains. French bonds were also under pressure. Many banks hold large amounts of their own government's bonds. When those bonds fall in price, bank balance sheets come under pressure.
Higher rates can still support lending margins. However, rates that stay high for too long can lead to more bad loans. That is why a European banks ETF tends to swing with growth and bond market news.
HSBC is the largest holding at 14.38%. Its third-quarter results are due on 27 October, which makes it an event to watch for EXV1.
EXV1 Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Higher rates can support net interest income | The fund fell 7.53% in the past month |
| Distribution yield of 3.91% | Sovereign bond stress hits bank balance sheets |
| Long rally since 2022 | Banking is a cyclical sector |
| Exposure to large European lenders | Top ten holdings make up 60.06% of the fund |
Sources: iShares, justETF. The yield is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
4. SPDR S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF (ZPRG)
ZPRG holds companies from around the world that have raised or kept their dividends for at least ten years in a row. That rule comes from the index provider, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Income-focused investors often follow funds of this type. Dividends, however, can be cut.
ZPRG Key Facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISIN | IE00B9CQXS71 |
| TER | 0.45% |
| Holdings | 88 |
| Fund size | $1,746.6m (20 Oct 2026) |
| Distribution yield | 4.00% (12 months, 20 Oct 2026) |
| 2026 so far | +7.31% in USD (to 30 Sep 2026) |
| Country split | US 52.52%, Canada 8.51%, UK 5.76% |
Sources: State Street Global Advisors, justETF (country split at 31 August 2026). The yield and returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
What Are Global Dividend Aristocrats?
Global dividend aristocrats are firms with a long record of stable or growing payouts. Such firms often come from utilities and consumer staples. These sectors have often held up better in past slowdowns, although they can lag in strong bull markets.
Income funds have been popular this year. US dividend ETFs drew $54bn of new money by the end of August, according to InvestmentNews. The Admirals guide to dividend ETFs explains how such funds work.
ZPRG Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Distribution yield of 4.00% | Dividends can be cut in a downturn |
| Spread across many countries | Over 52% of the fund is in US shares |
| Tilt to steadier sectors | Tends to lag when tech leads the market |
| Quarterly income | TER of 0.45% is higher than the 0.07% of VUSA |
Sources: State Street Global Advisors, justETF. The yield is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary.
5. iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF (NDIA)
NDIA tracks the MSCI India index. The index has 165 large and mid-cap stocks and covers about 85% of the Indian equity market, according to MSCI. It has been the weakest of the five funds in 2026.
NDIA Key Facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| ISIN | IE00BZCQB185 |
| TER | 0.65% |
| Fund size | $4.89bn (19 Oct 2026) |
| Latest NAV | $8.3852 (19 Oct 2026) |
| 52-week range | $8.00 to $9.94 (to 19 Oct 2026) |
| Largest sectors | Financials 30.48%, consumer discretionary 12.71% |
| 2026 so far | -14.33% in USD (to 19 Oct 2026) |
Source: iShares. Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why Have Indian Shares Struggled in 2026?
India imports most of its crude oil, so high oil prices tend to weigh on its trade balance and its currency. Foreign investors sold Rs 3.04 lakh crore of Indian shares in 2026 up to 11 October. That compares with Rs 1.66 lakh crore in all of 2025, according to Swarajya.
| Indicator | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Foreign outflows in 2026 | Rs 3.04 lakh crore | To 11 Oct 2026 |
| Foreign outflows in October | Rs 44,166 crore | To 11 Oct 2026 |
| Foreign outflows in 2025 | Rs 1.66 lakh crore | Full year |
| Rupee against the US dollar | About -7% | 2026 to 11 Oct |
Source: Swarajya. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Economic growth has held up. GDP grew 7.7% in the year to March 2026, as Outlook Business reported. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate to 5.5% on 7 October. It forecasts 7.1% growth for the current fiscal year, according to Swarajya. More detail is in the Admirals guide to India ETFs.
NDIA Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Direct exposure to Indian large and mid-cap shares | Down 14.33% in 2026 to 19 October |
| GDP grew 7.7% in the year to March 2026 | Heavy foreign selling this year |
| Domestic investors have absorbed part of the foreign selling | Oil prices and a weak rupee weigh on returns |
| Broad coverage of about 85% of the market | Highest TER of the five at 0.65% |
Sources: iShares, MSCI, Swarajya, Outlook Business. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Theme ETFs Outside the Main Five
Some theme funds sit outside the five above. Energy funds have gained this year, while defence funds have slipped after two strong years. The VanEck Defense UCITS ETF rose 52.70% in 2024 and 49.25% in 2025, according to justETF.
Each ETF reacts in its own way to the same shock. Higher oil prices have coincided with gains in energy funds and losses in Indian shares.
| Fund | 2026 so far | 1 year | Currency and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xtrackers MSCI World Energy UCITS ETF (XWES) | +55.33% | +61.29% | EUR, justETF accessed 21 Oct 2026 |
| VanEck Defense UCITS ETF (DFNS) | -2.03% | -4.37% | EUR, justETF accessed 21 Oct 2026 |
Sources: justETF (XWES), justETF (DFNS). Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Energy and Semiconductor Funds
Energy funds are closely tied to the price of oil. XWES has ExxonMobil at 17.67% and Chevron at 10.11%, according to justETF. A fall in oil prices could reverse part of its gains quickly. The Admirals guide to oil ETFs covers this area in more depth.
Chip funds are closely tied to AI spending. The October sell-off showed how fast sentiment towards that theme can turn. Readers can find more in the guide to semiconductor ETFs.
Five-Year Performance of the Top ETFs
Short-term numbers can mislead. The tables below show full calendar years so that each fund's record can be seen over a longer period.
| Fund (currency) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iShares Nasdaq 100, CNDX (USD) | +27.0% | -32.7% | +54.4% | +25.3% | +20.5% |
| SPDR Global Dividend Aristocrats, ZPRG (USD) | +15.32% | -6.97% | +6.93% | +7.74% | +17.02% |
| iShares MSCI India, NDIA (USD) | +25.1% | -8.5% | +19.7% | +10.6% | +3.1% |
| iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks, EXV1 (EUR) | +39.0% | +1.5% | +27.0% | +33.7% | +75.3% |
| Xtrackers MSCI World Energy, XWES (EUR) | +51.28% | +56.05% | -0.65% | +9.81% | +0.17% |
| VanEck Defense, DFNS (EUR) | n/a | n/a | n/a | +52.70% | +49.25% |
Sources: iShares (CNDX), State Street (ZPRG), iShares (NDIA), iShares (EXV1), extraETF (XWES, data to 19 October 2026), justETF (DFNS, launched 31 March 2023, so only full years 2024 and 2025), calendar years. Total returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Vanguard publishes VUSA returns for 12-month periods ending 30 September. These are shown separately below.
| 12 months to 30 September (VUSA, USD) | Return |
|---|---|
| 2022 | -15.71% |
| 2023 | +21.26% |
| 2024 | +35.97% |
| 2025 | +17.29% |
| 2026 | +15.46% |
Source: Vanguard factsheet, 30 September 2026. Total returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
S&P 500 Returns by Year and Nasdaq 100 Returns
| Year | S&P 500 year-end close | S&P 500 total return | Nasdaq 100 price change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4,766.18 | +28.71% | +26.63% |
| 2022 | 3,839.50 | -18.11% | -32.97% |
| 2023 | 4,769.83 | +26.29% | +53.81% |
| 2024 | 5,881.63 | +25.02% | +24.88% |
| 2025 | 6,845.50 | +17.88% | +20.17% |
Sources: Slickcharts (S&P 500), Slickcharts (Nasdaq 100). S&P 500 total returns and Nasdaq 100 price changes are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The data show how quickly gains can reverse. Both indices fell sharply in 2022, when the Fed raised rates fast. Investors in the Nasdaq 100 saw the deeper drop.
S&P 500 Forecast: What Analysts Expect for 2026 and 2027
Several firms in the table below see the S&P 500 near 8,000 at the end of 2026. That would be about 3.7% above the close of 20 October. One forecast, from HSBC, sits below the current level. Some targets date from May 2026 and may have been revised since.
| Firm | Year-end 2026 target | Other view | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | 8,100 | 2026 EPS $365 | 19 Oct 2026 |
| J.P. Morgan | 8,000 | 2027 EPS $420 | 10 Aug 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | 8,000 | 8,300 by mid-2027 | 13 May 2026 |
| Yardeni Research | 8,250 | 2027 EPS $375 | 11 May 2026 |
| HSBC | 7,650 | 11 May 2026 |
Sources: Oppenheimer, Kitco (J.P. Morgan), Newsquawk (Morgan Stanley), Investing.com (Yardeni, HSBC). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Rates and Growth Forecasts
| Source | Forecast | Published |
|---|---|---|
| Fed projections | Most officials see one more hike in 2026, PCE inflation 3.7% | 16 Sep 2026 |
| Reuters poll of 73 economists | ECB hike to 2.75% in December | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Bank of England | UK CPI about 3.75% in Q4 2026, above 4% in Q1 2027 | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | BoE hike in November | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of India | Growth 7.1%, inflation 5.2% for FY27 | 7 Oct 2026 |
Sources: Admirals (Fed), Global Banking and Finance (Reuters poll), MTS Insights (BoE), Kitco (Goldman Sachs), Swarajya (RBI). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Illustrative Scenarios for the Months Ahead
The scenarios below are illustrative only. They show how each type of ETF could be affected under different conditions. Any of them could fail to happen.
| Scenario | Possible triggers | How the ETFs could react |
|---|---|---|
| Positive | Strong tech earnings, Brent below $100, the Fed holds on 28 October | US equity funds could lead, and India could recover if oil eases |
| Neutral | The Fed signals a December hike, oil stays between $95 and $115 | Dividend and energy funds could hold up, while tech may stay volatile |
| Negative | Brent above $120, a Fed hike in October, 10-year yields above 5.25% | Nasdaq 100 and bank funds could fall further, and India could weaken |
Scenarios are illustrative and based on FactSet and InvestingLive data. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Key Dates for ETF Investors
UK clocks move back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November. So the gap between New York and London is four hours from 25 October until 1 November. Investors can follow these dates on the Admirals economic calendar.
| Date | Event | UK time | Most relevant ETF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 21 Oct | Meta and Tesla results | After 21:00 BST | CNDX, VUSA |
| Tue 27 Oct | HSBC third-quarter results | Time to be confirmed | EXV1 |
| Wed 28 Oct | Fed rate decision | 18:00 GMT | All five |
| Wed 28 Oct | Microsoft and Alphabet results | After 20:00 GMT | CNDX, VUSA |
| Thu 29 Oct | US Q3 GDP and September PCE | 12:30 GMT | VUSA, CNDX |
| Thu 29 Oct | ECB rate decision | 13:15 GMT | EXV1 |
| Mon 2 Nov | Apple results | After 21:00 GMT | CNDX, VUSA |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm elections | All day | VUSA, CNDX |
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England decision | 12:00 GMT | EXV1, ZPRG |
| Tue 10 Nov | US October CPI | 13:30 GMT | All five |
| Wed 9 Dec | Fed decision and projections | 19:00 GMT | All five |
Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, FedRateCalc, BloFin, Saxo, MarketScreener (HSBC). Dates can change, so check them before each event.
Main Risks to Watch
Every ETF in this guide can lose value. These are the main risks for the months ahead.
- A new disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher again.
- Further rate hikes could hurt shares and bond prices at the same time.
- A handful of AI companies make up a large share of the US funds.
- Wider spreads on European government bonds could weigh on bank shares.
- Foreign selling and a weak rupee could keep pressure on Indian shares.
- Exchange rate moves can add to or offset fund returns for UK and EU investors.
Currency Risk for UK and European Investors
Four of the five funds have the US dollar as their base currency. EUR/USD fell from 1.1720 on 2 January to 1.1238 on 20 October, according to Pound Sterling Live. That fall made US funds look stronger for euro-based investors. A rebound in the euro would have the opposite effect.
| Year | EUR/USD year-end close | Change in the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.1373 | |
| 2022 | 1.0704 | -5.88% |
| 2023 | 1.1038 | +3.12% |
| 2024 | 1.0350 | -6.23% |
| 2025 | 1.1732 | +13.35% |
Sources: Pound Sterling Live daily history for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, last trading day of each year. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
How to Choose an ETF
A few simple checks can help investors compare funds. Each check focuses on one feature.
- Investors often start with the index the fund tracks.
- The total expense ratio shows the yearly cost of holding the fund.
- Fund size and trading volume affect how easily units can be bought and sold.
- The base currency shows the main exchange rate exposure.
- The top holdings reveal how concentrated the fund is.
Accumulating vs Distributing ETF
| Feature | Accumulating | Distributing |
|---|---|---|
| What happens to dividends | Reinvested in the fund | Paid out to investors |
| Example in this guide | CNDX, NDIA | VUSA, ZPRG |
| Often chosen for | Long-term growth focus | Regular income focus |
| Tax treatment | Depends on local rules | Depends on local rules |
Source: iShares, Vanguard UK.
The Admirals guide What Are ETFs? explains the basics in more detail.
How to Invest in ETFs With Admirals
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex and indices. It also offers CFDs on commodities and shares, as well as investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and shares. Investors can choose between two routes for ETF exposure.
Investing in ETFs With Invest.MT5
An Invest.MT5 account lets clients buy shares and ETFs directly. The page lists over 4,500 instruments from 15 exchanges. The ETF product page lists funds such as the Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF and the iShares US100 UCITS ETF. Investors can check the platform to see whether a specific fund is available.
- Open an Invest.MT5 account and log in to the Dashboard.
- Open the MetaTrader 5 platform or the WebTrader.
- Search for the ETF ticker and open its chart.
- Review the costs and the risks before placing any order.
The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and investors may get back less than they invested.
ETF CFD Trading
CFDs on ETFs such as SPY and QQQ allow traders to speculate on rising or falling prices without owning the fund. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. The Admirals guide to CFDs vs ETFs explains the differences.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
A demo account uses virtual funds. Results may differ from live trading.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the top ETFs to watch in 2026?
This guide reviews five UCITS funds. Their suitability depends on each investor's goals and how much risk they accept.
What is a UCITS ETF?
A UCITS ETF is an exchange-traded fund that follows EU rules on diversification and liquidity designed to protect investors.
Are US ETFs available to UK investors?
Many US-listed ETFs lack the disclosure documents that UK rules require, so retail investors often use UCITS versions.
How do accumulating ETFs work?
Accumulating ETFs reinvest dividends inside the fund, so the unit price reflects income over time without cash payouts.
Why have European bank ETFs fallen since September?
They fell more than 7% from early September as record bond yields and wider sovereign spreads weighed on banks.
Why is the India ETF down in 2026?
High oil prices and a weaker rupee have hurt Indian shares, along with heavy selling by foreign investors.
Can ETFs lose money?
Yes. ETF prices move with their holdings, so investors can get back less than they invested at any time.
Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
- With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- The Analysis is prepared by an analyst (hereinafter “Author”). The Author Admirals is an employee /a contractor for Admirals. This content is a marketing communication and does not constitute independent financial research.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
- Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
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