Should I Buy Microsoft Stock? MSFT Analysis for 2026
Should I buy Microsoft stock? That depends on your own goals and how much risk you can accept. This guide sets out the key figures and the main risks so you can make up your own mind.
MSFT stock closed at about $500.87 on 21 September 2026. The Microsoft market cap stood at roughly $3.7 trillion.
In the year to 30 June 2026, revenue grew 18% to $331.8 billion. Azure passed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, according to Microsoft's results release.
Depending on the data provider, the stock traded at roughly 25 to 27 times forward earnings in mid-September 2026. According to TIKR, the average forward multiple over the five years to January 2025 was about 31 times. A lower multiple can reflect higher perceived risk, so it says little on its own.
Once you have weighed the facts, you can invest in stocks and ETFs with Admirals if Microsoft fits your plans. The value of shares can fall as well as rise, and you could get back less than you invest.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Microsoft Stock at a Glance
Microsoft corporation stock trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker MSFT. The table sums up the key numbers in one place.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | NASDAMSFT |
| Close on 21 September 2026 | $500.87 |
| 52-week range | $349.20 to $553.72 |
| Microsoft market cap | About $3.7 trillion |
| Forward P/E (microsoft pe ratio) | About 25x to 27x, depending on source |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.98 per share (declared 15 September 2026) |
| Dividend yield | About 0.8% |
| Beta | About 1.59 |
| MSFT earnings date | Expected late October 2026 (to be confirmed by Microsoft) |
The Microsoft stock price today changes every second the market is open. Check a live quote before you place any order.
Many people also hold Microsoft stocks indirectly through index funds. Microsoft is one of the largest members of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100.
Microsoft Stock News: What Happened in 2026
2026 has been a rollercoaster for shareholders. The stock swung from a deep sell-off to a sharp rebound within a few months.
The January Sell-Off
On 28 January 2026, Microsoft reported its fiscal second quarter. Azure growth slowed, and the company disclosed about 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats.
That figure came in below what many analysts expected. The MSFT share price fell about 10% in a day, from $481.63 to $433.50.
June: The Worst Month Since 2000
Worries about free cash flow and AI spending kept building. In June 2026 the stock lost more than 21%, its worst month since 2000.
On 25 June the shares hit an intraday low of $349.20. That was about 35% below the peak of October 2025.
For a few weeks, holding MSFT felt a bit like waiting for Windows Update to finish. Progress was slow, and there were a few unexpected restarts.
The July Turnaround
On 29 July 2026, Microsoft beat forecasts for its fiscal fourth quarter. Azure growth sped up to 43%, and capital spending came in below fears. The shares rose about 8% in extended trading after the report, according to CNBC.
| Date | Event | Microsoft share price |
|---|---|---|
| Late October 2025 | Shares reach their 52-week high | $553.72 intraday |
| 28 to 29 January 2026 | Q2 FY26 results and Copilot seat disclosure | Down about 10% to $433.50 |
| June 2026 | Worst month since 2000 | Intraday low of $349.20 on 25 June |
| 29 to 30 July 2026 | Q4 FY26 results beat forecasts | Up about 8% in extended trading |
| 15 September 2026 | Dividend raised by 8% to $0.98 | Down about 1.6% on the day |
| 21 September 2026 | Latest close | $500.87 |
Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Microsoft Investor Relations. Figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Prices are in US dollars, so returns in pounds or euros can rise or fall with exchange rates.
By mid-September the stock was only slightly up for the year. The S&P 500 had gained about 11.4% over the same period, according to Cantor Fitzgerald data.
Microsoft Stock Performance Over the Last Five Years
The table shows total returns in US dollars for the last five complete calendar years, with dividends reinvested. Returns swung from a loss of 28% to a gain of 58% within this period.
| Calendar year | Microsoft stock performance (total return, USD) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | +52.5% |
| 2022 | -28.0% |
| 2023 | +58.2% |
| 2024 | +12.9% |
| 2025 | +15.6% |
Sources: FinanceCharts and Macrotrends, dividends reinvested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Returns in pounds or euros may be higher or lower because of currency moves.
Microsoft Earnings and Microsoft Financials
Microsoft's fiscal year ends on 30 June. Fiscal 2026 was a record year on almost every line.
"It was a very strong close to what was a record fiscal year for us." Satya Nadella, Chairman and CEO, on the Q4 FY26 earnings call.
Full-Year Results for FY26
| Metric | FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $331.8bn | +18% |
| Operating income | $155.2bn | +21% |
| Net income (GAAP) | $133.7bn | +31% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $17.95 | +32% |
| Microsoft Cloud revenue | Over $214bn | +27% |
| Azure revenue | Over $100bn | +41% |
Source: Microsoft FY26 Q4 press release and earnings call, 29 July 2026.
Part of the profit jump came from one-off gains. Net gains on OpenAI investments added $0.67 to diluted EPS over the full year.
Q4 FY26 Versus Expectations
| Metric | Q4 FY26 | Year-on-year | LSEG consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $90.0bn | +18% | $87.62bn |
| EPS (non-GAAP) | $4.74 | +23% | $4.24 |
| EPS (GAAP) | $4.81 | +32% | n/a |
| Operating income | $40.6bn | +18% | n/a |
| Azure growth | 43% | Faster than Q3 | n/a |
| Capex including finance leases | $41bn | +69% | n/a |
Sources: Microsoft, CNBC.
Microsoft said discrete items added $0.27 to EPS versus its own guidance. Without them, the beat looks smaller.
Commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew 84% to $678 billion. CFO Amy Hood said all sequential RPO growth came from customers "outside of frontier model companies".
Cash Flow and Capital Spending
Microsoft generated $182.9 billion of operating cash flow in FY26. It held $76.8 billion in cash and short-term investments at year end.
Heavy AI spending squeezes free cash flow, though. Q4 free cash flow was about $19.6 billion, after $41 billion of capital spending.
Management expects capital spending above $50 billion in Q1 FY27. It also expects free cash flow to stay positive for FY27.
Microsoft Dividends
On 15 September 2026, Microsoft raised its quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.98 per share. It was the smallest increase since 2017.
| Dividend detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Quarterly dividend | $0.98 per share |
| Annual rate | $3.92 per share |
| Yield at about $498 | About 0.8% |
| Microsoft ex-dividend date | 19 November 2026 |
| Record date | 19 November 2026 |
| Payment date | 10 December 2026 |
MSFT Dividend History
| Year declared (September) | Quarterly dividend | Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $0.75 | +10.3% |
| 2024 | $0.83 | +10.7% |
| 2025 | $0.91 | +9.6% |
| 2026 | $0.98 | +7.7% |
Microsoft has raised its dividend every year for more than two decades. Future payments are set by its board and can be cut or suspended.
Dividends from US shares usually face US withholding tax. The rate depends on your tax residence and treaty status, and tax rules can change.
Microsoft Stock Split History
Microsoft has split its shares nine times since its IPO on 13 March 1986 at $21 per share. One share bought at the IPO equals 288 shares today.
| Date | Split ratio |
|---|---|
| 21 September 1987 | 2-for-1 |
| 16 April 1990 | 2-for-1 |
| 27 June 1991 | 3-for-2 |
| 15 June 1992 | 3-for-2 |
| 23 May 1994 | 2-for-1 |
| 9 December 1996 | 2-for-1 |
| 23 February 1998 | 2-for-1 |
| 29 March 1999 | 2-for-1 |
| 18 February 2003 | 2-for-1 |
Microsoft has not announced a new split as of September 2026. A split changes the number of shares, while the total value of your holding stays the same.
Microsoft Stock Analysis: The Growth Drivers
Azure and the Cloud Race
Azure is the engine of the business. It grew 43% in Q4 FY26, and management guided for about 45% in constant currency for Q1 FY27.
Rivals are growing fast too. Synergy Research Group data for Q2 2026 shows the cloud market grew about 43% to $143.4 billion.
| Provider | Market share (Q2 2026) | Latest growth rate |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services | 28% | +37% |
| Microsoft Azure | 20% | +43% |
| Google Cloud | 15% | +82% |
| Others | 37% | n/a |
Source: Synergy Research Group, company reports. Growth rates are for each company's latest reported quarter.
In simple terms, Azure revenue growth is roughly in line with the market. Google Cloud has been gaining share faster.
Copilot and Microsoft 365 Pricing
Microsoft had over 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats by Q4 FY26. That is up from about 15 million in January 2026.
The seats still cover only around 6% to 7% of the commercial Microsoft 365 base. Some industry estimates put Copilot's annual revenue run-rate near $10 billion. Microsoft does not report this figure separately, so treat it with caution.
Microsoft also raised list prices on 1 July 2026. Microsoft Copilot revenue now comes from both seats and usage-based credits.
| Plan | Old monthly price | New monthly price |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft 365 E3 | $36 | $39 |
| Microsoft 365 E5 | $57 | $60 |
| Frontline plans (F1 and F3) | Various | Up 25% to 43% |
| E7 Frontier Suite (E5 plus Copilot and agents) | n/a | $99 |
Sources: licensing partners citing Microsoft price lists. Prices are per user and may vary by region and contract.
The Microsoft Investment in OpenAI
Microsoft owns roughly a quarter of OpenAI. Its FY26 annual report shows $24.1 billion of revenue from commercial deals with OpenAI.
That is about 7.3% of total revenue. OpenAI also owed Microsoft $6.0 billion at 30 June 2026.
Since April 2026, OpenAI can use other cloud providers. Microsoft also holds a stake in Anthropic, which has committed to buy $30 billion of Azure services. Microsoft earns money from several AI developers, which spreads some of its exposure. Problems at a large AI customer could still hit Azure revenue.
Blizzard Stock and the Xbox Reset
Blizzard stocks used to trade as part of Activision Blizzard under the ticker ATVI. Those shares stopped trading when Microsoft completed its $68.7 billion takeover on 13 October 2023.
Today you can only gain exposure to Blizzard through Microsoft stock.
Blizzard was reportedly Xbox's best-performing studio in FY26, helped by Diablo IV: Lord of Hatred and Overwatch. The wider gaming unit is going through a painful reset under new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
| Xbox metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Xbox revenue in FY26 | $21.79bn, down 7% |
| Share of Microsoft revenue | About 6.6% |
| Xbox content and services in Q4 FY26 | Down 10% |
| Planned job cuts announced in July 2026 | About 3,200 |
| Game Pass subscribers (WSJ estimate) | About 30 million |
Gaming made up about 6.6% of Microsoft's revenue in FY26, so even a strong Blizzard year has a limited effect on group profits.
Microsoft Stock Forecast: What Analysts Say
Admirals does not publish a price target for Microsoft. The figures below are third-party analyst estimates collected by S&P Global Market Intelligence. They are opinions that can change quickly. They are not a reliable indicator of future prices.
| Consensus data (21 September 2026) | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of analysts | 55 |
| Average 12-month target (MSFT price target) | $572.92 |
| Median target | $555 |
| Lowest and highest targets | $400 and $870 |
| Ratings split | 38 strong buy, 14 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell |
| FY27 consensus revenue | $391.04bn |
| FY27 consensus EPS | $19.76 |
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis. Admirals has not verified these estimates.
The gap between the lowest and highest targets is more than double. That spread shows how uncertain the future of AI spending still is.
Possible Scenarios
| Scenario | What would need to happen |
|---|---|
| Stronger case | Azure growth holds at or above guidance and Copilot adoption speeds up. |
| Middle case | Revenue and profit keep growing at double-digit rates in line with guidance. |
| Weaker case | Returns on AI spending disappoint and memory costs squeeze cloud margins. |
| Stress case | A large AI customer runs into trouble or regulators force changes to product bundles. |
Scenarios are illustrative only. They are not forecasts, and actual results may differ materially.
Microsoft Stock Outlook: Dates and Metrics to Watch
Management Guidance for Q1 FY27
| Metric | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $89.85bn to $90.95bn |
| Azure growth | About 45% in constant currency |
| Capital expenditure | Above $50bn |
| Operating margin | Roughly flat year-on-year |
Source: Microsoft Q4 FY26 earnings call, 29 July 2026. Company guidance can change.
Many investors review their holdings around earnings dates. Management guided for Azure growth of about 45% in constant currency for the quarter, and analysts will compare the result with that figure.
Key Dates
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 23 October 2026 | Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 release (reported) |
| Late October 2026 | Q1 FY27 results (expected, date to be confirmed) |
| 4 November 2026 | World of Warcraft: Forever launch |
| 19 November 2026 | Ex-dividend date |
| 8 December 2026 | Annual shareholders meeting |
| 10 December 2026 | Dividend payment |
Will Microsoft Stock Recover?
That is impossible to predict with certainty. On 21 September 2026 the share price was about 43% above its June low and about 10% below its 52-week high of $553.72.
Future moves will depend on things like Azure growth and the payback on AI spending. Wider market mood towards software stocks matters too.
Why Invest in Microsoft? Arguments For and Against
Here are the main points bulls and bears make about Microsoft stock.
| Arguments for | Arguments against |
|---|---|
| Azure grew 43% in Q4 FY26 and demand exceeds capacity. | Azure is growing roughly in line with the market and is losing share to Google Cloud. |
| Commercial RPO reached $678 billion. | A large part of that backlog is linked to OpenAI. |
| Copilot seats doubled their net additions in Q4. | Copilot still reaches only around 7% of the commercial base. |
| Operating margin is about 45%. | Free cash flow fell as capital spending soared. |
| The dividend has grown for more than two decades. | The yield of about 0.8% is low for income investors. |
Risks to Weigh
- Heavy reliance on OpenAI makes revenue more concentrated.
- Capital spending above $50 billion a quarter puts pressure on free cash flow.
- TrendForce reported DRAM contract prices up 90% to 95% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, which raises server costs.
- Competition regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are looking at Microsoft's cloud and licensing practices.
- Software stocks have fallen out of favour with investors in 2026.
There is also a legal overhang. A securities class action filed on 12 June 2026 in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington alleges that Microsoft made misleading statements about Copilot and Azure. These allegations have not been proven in court.
Before you invest in Microsoft, it can help to compare it with other companies. Our guide on how to pick stocks explains the key ratios.
How to Buy Microsoft Shares
To buy Microsoft stock, you need a broker with access to US markets. An Invest.MT5 account gives you access to thousands of stocks and ETFs from major global exchanges.
- Open an Invest.MT5 account and log in to the Dashboard.
- Click Invest next to your account to open MetaTrader WebTrader.
- Search for Microsoft in the list of instruments.
- Click Create New Order and enter the number of shares.
- Press Buy to send your order to the market.
New to shares? Read our step-by-step guide on how to start investing in the stock market.
Practise First on a Demo Account
A demo account lets you practise with virtual funds. Demo results may differ from live trading, where prices move fast and real money is at stake.
Things to Check Before You Invest
Knowing how to invest in Microsoft stock is the easy part. These checks matter more.
- Microsoft shares are priced in US dollars, so currency moves affect your returns.
- Check the fees on your account, including any currency conversion costs.
- Fractional shares let you buy part of a share if your account offers them.
- Spreading money across several companies and sectors can reduce the impact of one stock falling.
- Consider your tax position, because it depends on where you live.
Investing in shares listed abroad has its own quirks. Our article on international stocks covers them.
FAQ
What is the ticker for Microsoft stock?
Microsoft trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker MSFT and is part of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.
When did Microsoft go public?
Microsoft listed on the Nasdaq on 13 March 1986 at an IPO price of $21 per share.
How much is the Microsoft dividend?
In September 2026, Microsoft declared a quarterly dividend of $0.98 per share, payable on 10 December 2026.
When is the next MSFT earnings date?
Microsoft is expected to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 results in late October 2026. Check its investor relations website.
How many times has Microsoft stock split?
Microsoft has split its stock nine times since 1986. The most recent was a 2-for-1 split in 2003.
Is Blizzard stock still traded?
Blizzard became part of Microsoft when the Activision Blizzard deal closed in October 2023. Its shares were then delisted.
What do analysts say about MSFT?
Most of the 55 analysts tracked by S&P Global rated MSFT a buy in September 2026. Opinions can change.
Is Microsoft stock risky?
All shares carry risk. MSFT fell about 35% from its October 2025 high to its June 2026 low.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
- With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- The Analysis is prepared by an analyst (hereinafter “Author”). The Author Roberto Rivero is a contractor for Admirals. This content is a marketing communication and does not constitute independent financial research.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
- Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
