How Rising Inflation Could Affect the Price of Your Pint by 2030

February 22, 2022 08:43

Since the pandemic hit back in 2020, the UK’s public finances have been affected dramatically, and it was recently revealed that, as of spring 2022, the inflation rate is due to increase to 7.25%. If you are unsure of what that means, and what inflation means in general, the Bank of England’s definition puts it into simple terms.

Essentially, it’s the name used to “describe the increase in prices over time" and “how quickly those prices go up is called the rate of inflation.”

As of December 2021, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the current inflation rate is 5.4%.

So, in regard to all of our favourite things, including pubs and pints, what does the future hold exactly? In short, it means you should expect to see the price of your favourite drink rising in the future.

In the UK today, the average price of a pint is £3.96, and assuming that the rate of inflation does rise to 7.25% in spring, as predicted, and remains at this rate until 2030 then we can say goodbye to “cheap(ish) pints”, and hello to paying a small fortune (around £6 on average). Let’s break it down…

Price of a Pint in England

As it currently stands, Leicester is the cheapest place to buy a pint in the UK. Costing around £3.26 for the privilege (lucky you). It is estimated that by 2030, a standard pint in this area could set you back almost £7 (£6.93 to be exact).

And there’s no points for guessing where the most expensive location is to socialise. London is currently 58% more expensive than other urban areas across the UK, and that’s just for the basic standard of living. So in pint terms, as the cost of an average beverage is already £6, by 2030, Londoners and visitors alike could see prices rise by over £4. That means you could end up paying £10.50 for just one beer. Ouch.

Then there’s the bigger cities out of London - like Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, and Brighton - that are all ranked as somewhere in the middle. Today, in Birmingham, you can expect to pay £4.46, whereas in Leeds it’s £3.86. In Liverpool, it’s around £4.48, in Manchester, you’re looking at roughly £4.05 and Brighton’s a bit more expensive at £4.94.

But, by 2030, these prices could rise to an unsavoury £7.81, £6.70, £7.14, £6.46 and £7.87 respectively. And when you think back to 1987, when you could enjoy a pint for the average cost of 99p, it’s a struggle to believe how much inflation has risen since then, and how, by 2030, it will cost even more.

Price of a Pint in Scotland

Scotland is much the same as the rest of the UK, in that some areas are more expensive than others when it comes to an alcoholic beverage. In fact, Edinburgh is the second most expensive city in the UK, coming in at around £5.10 for a pint - just 90p less than London.

Other areas are significantly cheaper, including Glasgow and Aberdeen, where it will cost you £3.88 and £3.83 respectively.

Price of a Pint in Wales

Wales remains the cheapest place to go to the pub. In Cardiff, the capital, the average price of a pint is £3.42 and, according to the International Pint Price Map, in Swansea, it’s £3.31. This makes it the 9th cheapest place to find a pint in the UK, and the cheapest in Wales. Further up the country in Llandudno, North Wales, the average price is £3.80.

But as of 2030, if you’re planning on having a night out in Cardiff, the price could have risen to around £5.99. So we suggest you get saving.

25 Cities Ranked From Most Expensive to Least Expensive

Whether you live in London or Leicester, the cities mentioned above are just a few that made it on the expensive to cheap list. Below you will find the top 25, ranked in order from the most expensive pint to the least expensive, with projections from now up until 2030.

And whether you’re thinking about the price of a pint, or inflation in general, it should give you an idea about which parts of the country are set to jump massively in regard to the cost of living, and which ones could remain relatively affordable:

Inflation rising by 5.4% (the current inflation rate)

Location	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
UK	£3.96	£4.17	£4.40	£4.64	£4.89	£5.15	£5.43	£5.72	£6.03
London	£6.00	£6.32	£6.67	£7.03	£7.40	£7.80	£8.23	£8.67	£9.14
Edinburgh	£5.10	£5.38	£5.67	£5.97	£6.29	£6.63	£6.99	£7.37	£7.77
Brighton and Hove	£4.94	£5.21	£5.49	£5.78	£6.10	£6.43	£6.77	£7.14	£7.52
Bristol	£4.52	£4.76	£5.02	£5.29	£5.58	£5.88	£6.20	£6.53	£6.88
Oxford	£4.49	£4.73	£4.99	£5.26	£5.54	£5.84	£6.16	£6.49	£6.84
Liverpool	£4.48	£4.72	£4.98	£5.25	£5.53	£5.83	£6.14	£6.47	£6.82
Birmingham	£4.46	£4.70	£4.95	£5.22	£5.50	£5.80	£6.11	£6.44	£6.79
Belfast	£4.45	£4.69	£4.94	£5.21	£5.49	£5.79	£6.10	£6.43	£6.78
Newcastle upon Tyne	£4.33	£4.56	£4.81	£5.07	£5.34	£5.63	£5.94	£6.26	£6.59
Southampton	£4.31	£4.54	£4.79	£5.05	£5.32	£5.61	£5.91	£6.23	£6.56
Nottingham	£4.27	£4.50	£4.74	£5.00	£5.27	£5.55	£5.85	£6.17	£6.50
Manchester	£4.05	£4.27	£4.50	£4.74	£5.00	£5.27	£5.55	£5.85	£6.17
Reading	£3.97	£4.18	£4.41	£4.65	£4.90	£5.16	£5.44	£5.74	£6.05
Southend-on-Sea	£3.96	£4.17	£4.40	£4.64	£4.89	£5.15	£5.43	£5.72	£6.03
Northampton	£3.91	£4.12	£4.34	£4.58	£4.83	£5.09	£5.36	£5.65	£5.96
Glasgow	£3.88	£4.09	£4.31	£4.54	£4.79	£5.05	£5.32	£5.61	£5.91
Sheffield	£3.87	£4.08	£4.30	£4.53	£4.78	£5.03	£5.31	£5.59	£5.89
Coventry	£3.86	£4.07	£4.29	£4.52	£4.76	£5.02	£5.29	£5.58	£5.88
Leeds	£3.83	£4.04	£4.25	£4.48	£4.73	£4.98	£5.25	£5.53	£5.83
Aberdeen	£3.83	£4.04	£4.25	£4.48	£4.73	£4.98	£5.25	£5.53	£5.83
Plymouth	£3.69	£3.89	£4.10	£4.32	£4.55	£4.80	£5.06	£5.33	£5.62
Kingston upon Hull	£3.64	£3.84	£4.04	£4.26	£4.49	£4.73	£4.99	£5.26	£5.54
Stoke-on-Trent	£3.51	£3.70	£3.90	£4.11	£4.33	£4.57	£4.81	£5.07	£5.35
Cardiff	£3.42	£3.60	£3.80	£4.00	£4.22	£4.45	£4.69	£4.94	£5.21
Leicester	£3.26	£3.44	£3.62	£3.82	£4.02	£4.24	£4.47	£4.71	£4.97

Inflation rising by 7.25% (as predicted to reach by Spring 2022)

Location	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
UK	£3.96	£4.25	£4.56	£4.89	£5.24	£5.62	£6.03	£6.46	£6.93
London	£6.00	£6.44	£6.90	£7.40	£7.94	£8.51	£9.13	£9.79	£10.50
Edinburgh	£5.10	£5.47	£5.87	£6.29	£6.75	£7.24	£7.76	£8.32	£8.93
Brighton and Hove	£4.94	£5.30	£5.68	£6.09	£6.54	£7.01	£7.52	£8.06	£8.65
Bristol	£4.52	£4.85	£5.20	£5.58	£5.98	£6.41	£6.88	£7.38	£7.91
Oxford	£4.49	£4.82	£5.16	£5.54	£5.94	£6.37	£6.83	£7.33	£7.86
Liverpool	£4.48	£4.80	£5.15	£5.53	£5.93	£6.36	£6.82	£7.31	£7.84
Birmingham	£4.46	£4.78	£5.13	£5.50	£5.90	£6.33	£6.79	£7.28	£7.81
Belfast	£4.45	£4.77	£5.12	£5.49	£5.89	£6.31	£6.77	£7.26	£7.79
Newcastle upon Tyne	£4.33	£4.64	£4.98	£5.34	£5.73	£6.14	£6.59	£7.07	£7.58
Southampton	£4.31	£4.62	£4.96	£5.32	£5.70	£6.12	£6.56	£7.03	£7.54
Nottingham	£4.27	£4.58	£4.91	£5.27	£5.65	£6.06	£6.50	£6.97	£7.47
Manchester	£4.05	£4.34	£4.66	£5.00	£5.36	£5.75	£6.16	£6.61	£7.09
Reading	£3.97	£4.26	£4.57	£4.90	£5.25	£5.63	£6.04	£6.48	£6.95
Southend-on-Sea	£3.96	£4.25	£4.56	£4.89	£5.24	£5.62	£6.03	£6.46	£6.93
Northampton	£3.91	£4.19	£4.50	£4.82	£5.17	£5.55	£5.95	£6.38	£6.84
Glasgow	£3.88	£4.16	£4.46	£4.79	£5.13	£5.51	£5.90	£6.33	£6.79
Sheffield	£3.87	£4.15	£4.45	£4.77	£5.12	£5.49	£5.89	£6.32	£6.77
Coventry	£3.86	£4.14	£4.44	£4.76	£5.11	£5.48	£5.87	£6.30	£6.76
Leeds	£3.83	£4.11	£4.41	£4.72	£5.07	£5.43	£5.83	£6.25	£6.70
Aberdeen	£3.83	£4.11	£4.41	£4.72	£5.07	£5.43	£5.83	£6.25	£6.70
Plymouth	£3.69	£3.96	£4.24	£4.55	£4.88	£5.24	£5.62	£6.02	£6.46
Kingston upon Hull	£3.64	£3.90	£4.19	£4.49	£4.82	£5.17	£5.54	£5.94	£6.37
Stoke-on-Trent	£3.51	£3.76	£4.04	£4.33	£4.64	£4.98	£5.34	£5.73	£6.14
Cardiff	£3.42	£3.67	£3.93	£4.22	£4.52	£4.85	£5.20	£5.58	£5.99
Leicester	£3.26	£3.50	£3.75	£4.02	£4.31	£4.63	£4.96	£5.32	£5.71

What Does Inflation Mean For You?

The price of a pint rising will naturally instil fear into many people across the UK. But, alongside you having to pay more for your favourite beer, it’s also worth being aware of what inflation means for you, whether that be in regard to long term investment or short term saving goals.

It’s important to be aware of the inflation rate when you’re thinking about investments and savings, as it can make a big difference when it comes to profit after inflation.

For example, if you deposit money into a savings account that credits you interest at 1% per year, one year later, you’ll have 1% more money. Makes sense, right? But if inflation rates are higher than 1%, although you have more money, it means it can purchase less than before.

So, if your long term goal is to make money from your investments, it’s important you find either an investment or a bank account that ‘beats inflation’. This means the profit or interest you make from depositing money is higher than the rate of inflation.

And, as a general rule of thumb, if your goals are short term, and you plan to spend the money you’ve saved within five years, it’s recommended to opt for a savings account. This way, you won’t need to worry too much about inflation. But if you’re planning on long term investments for longer than five years, inflation rates are something you need to consider.

Roberto Rivero, Market Analyst at Admirals says, “Soaring energy prices, labour shortages and the rising cost of raw materials are pushing up input costs for businesses, which, in turn, is putting upward pressure on prices.

Rising inflation should only be transitory until the economy is used to living with Covid-19. However, things are likely to get worse before getting better. If inflation continues to rise at a faster rate than wages, then the price of a pint would be the least of our concerns.

The hospitality sector would likely suffer as people began to prioritise spending on essential items and, although many of us may think that a pint of beer on a Friday night is essential, things like food and household goods will take priority.”

Average cost per pint by city 2022

Average cost per pint by city in 2030

Depicted: Average Price of a Pint 1985 - 2030

Pint Research is Just the Beginning

So, whether it’s pint research you’re after, or you want to understand inflation rates in a more casual setting, (i.e, the pub) it’s still important you understand the way prices rise, why they rise, and how they rise. And while we’ve still got 8 more years before it could cost us over £10 for a pint in London, it will come around quicker than you think.

Disclaimer: Until then, please drink responsibly.

Methodology

The average price of a pint in the UK between 1985 - 2022 has been sourced from ONS.

The average price of a pint for each city in 2022 has been sourced from Expatistan on 24th January 2022.

The prices for each year until 2030 have been calculated with the predicted inflation rate of 7.25% for Spring 2022, as per the Bank of England on 16th February 2022. The figures are an indication of the price, if the predicted inflation rate in Spring 2022 stays at 7.25% until 2030.

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