Weekly Market Outlook: UK/Canada Inflation & US Retail Sales Figures in Focus

November 14, 2021 23:11

With central banks adjusting monetary policy to keep inflation in check, this week could set the tone for the rest of the year. Both Canada and the UK release their latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures on Wednesday.  

The Bank of England decided not to increase interest rates in the last meeting, even though inflation is surging higher. Will that prove to be the correct decision or not? Either way, it’s setting up to have a huge impact on the British pound.  

As the US dollar has been influencing global market trends in the past few weeks, Tuesday’s US Retail Sales figures could help the greenback even more. Analysts are forecasting a huge rise in the total value of sales in the US economy last month. 

You can learn more about some of the global themes affecting the markets in this selection of new education articles.  

You can learn more about some of the global themes affecting the markets in this selection of new education articles.  

Weekly Forex Calendar 

Source: Forex Calendar from the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals.  

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Trader’s Radar – Tuesday’s US Retail Sales Figures

On Tuesday 16 November at 1.30 pm GMT, the US Census Bureau releases the latest retail sales figures for the US economy. This figure shows the change in the total value of sales in the retail industry for the prior month.  

Analysts are forecasting a rise in the number but the details of where the growth is happening will be important. In fact, traders will be taking clues from this report and will want to know that the world’s biggest economy is continuing to grow.  

The US dollar index chart is shown below and highlights the long-term range that has developed since 2014. The price has most recently bounced off the lower part of the range at the horizontal support level around 89.12. 

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, USDX, Monthly - Data range: from 1 Aug 2013 to 14 Nov 2021, performed on 14 Nov 2021 at 7:00 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

The price has also now broken through key resistance as shown by the descending resistant line in red. The Fed has already announced plans to start the tapering process but with the consumer price index surging to 31-year highs, interest rate expectations are now being priced in much earlier.  

If this week’s US data can support a solid rebound in the economy, the US dollar index may enter an acceleration phase, working its way back to the top of the long-term range.  

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Corporate Trading Updates and Stock Indices 

Global stock market indices have continued to surge higher in recent weeks, even in front of sooner than expected interest rate hikes next year. However, the moves higher have varied depending on the region.  

US stock market indices have been the strongest, followed by European indices and then Asia indices. While US and European stock market indices may feel overstretched, intraday momentum traders have kept the trend alive.  

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, SP500, Daily - Data range: from 9 Feb 2021 to 14 Nov 2021, performed on 14 Nov 2021 at 6:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.  Past five-year performance of the S&P 500: 2020 = +16.17%, 2019 = +29.09%, 2018 = -5.96%, 2017 = +19.08%, 2016 = +8.80 

The daily price chart of the S&P 500 stock market index shown above, still confirms the long-term overall uptrend. Currently, the price is overextended from its 50-day exponential moving average (red line).  

This will be an interesting level to watch as it has previously provided significant support for buyers to build upon in the past. If the trend does continue at current levels, traders may look to the lower timeframes for more price action patterns to confirm any buying momentum.  

Either way, it’s definitely one to watch! 

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Jitanchandra Solanki
Jitanchandra Solanki Financial Markets Author, Admirals London

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.