Gold bulls in charge of the action again – new yearly highs soon?

Juni 03, 2020 11:00

Source: Economic Events June 3, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

As it now is clearly holding above 1,700 USD, the outlook for Gold is strongly bullish. Nevertheless, bulls are now obligated to "deliver" if they want to avoid a deeper short-term correction.

"Deliver" in this context means nothing more than: "push the precious metal above 1,770 USD to new yearly highs". If they fail to do so, the still given bearish divergence in the RSI(14) on a daily time-frame could play out and result in a test of the short-term trend-support around 1,660 USD.

Nevertheless, mid-term our take for the yellow metal stays clearly bullish and we expect rather than later a stint to the all-time high around 1,920 USD.

One potential driver for such a move could be a sustainable drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 0.60% which seems, in our opinion, only a question of time.

One trigger could be today's release of the ADP employment report. While private businesses in the US fired 20.2 million workers in April, today's numbers are expected only at 9 million lost jobs for May.

Still, any print which comes in worse than the expectation and above 10 million could trigger a next wave of risk-off, bringing US yields under pressure again and driver the precious metal significantly higher with bringing 1,770 USD into our focus.

On the other hand, any positive surprise with a print of less than 9 million fired workers could push Gold again below 1,700 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 4, 2019, to June 2, 2020). Accessed: June 2, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.

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