DAX30 less volatile over the last few days – the calm before the bears?
Source: Economic Events April 6, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
While the economic calendar is very thin for the start of the week, the picture for the DAX30 CFD nevertheless stays very interesting, and has the potential to see strong moves in either direction.
While we consider the DAX30 CFD to be technically neutral between 9,150/200 and 10,150 points on an hourly time-frame, we still favour a break out of the range on the downside, considering the recent correction into the end of March towards a bear market rally.
In fact, the main driver for the upwards run in Equities (especially US Equities) for the end of the first quarter could be a necessary rebalancing of portfolios by money managers, who need to step up their Equity exposure and selling of bonds in order to maintain their allocation targets.
The resulting "problem" is obvious: after this "rebalancing" demand diminishes, and with the latest bad numbers from the labour market showing that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 6.6 million in the week of March 28, the failure to recapture the mark of 10,000 points last week clearly points to bears being still in control of the price action and the advantage remaining clearly on the short side.
In the short-term, the main focus stays on the region around 9,150/200 points. If we get to see a sustainable drop below that level, a re-test of the region around 8,000 points, probably a drop even lower stays a serious option in the days to come.
On the other hand: above 9,150/200 points a push back towards and even above 10,000 points respectively 10,150 points stays on the table:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between December 17, 2018, to April 3, 2020). Accessed: April 3, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.
Discover the world's #1 multi-asset platform
Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!
Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
- Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
- To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
- Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.