Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, RBA & BOE in Focus
The first week of November is action-packed with a large range of economic news announcements, speeches and corporate earnings.
On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and their latest interest rate decision - now that the Australian economy has picked up, will the central bank change its tune?
Wednesday, we hear the latest from the Federal Reserve members in the FOMC Press Conference. Will the Fed signal the start of the tapering process? The market knows it’s coming but the timing is still in the air.
Thursday, all eyes are on the Bank of England. The futures market has been pricing in higher interest rates sooner rather than later so it will be interesting to see if the bank’s members start to shift their votes.
We end on Friday with US Non-Farm Payroll figures. The US dollar was a market mover at the end of last week, so this week’s flows could set the trend for the rest of the month.
You can learn more about some of the global themes affecting the markets in this selection of new education articles.
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Weekly Forex Calendar
Source: Forex Calendar from the MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals.
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Trader’s Radar – Bank of England Rate Votes
On Thursday 4 November at 12 pm GMT, the Bank of England release its latest Monetary Policy Report, Asset Purchase Facility Votes, Bank Rate Votes and the latest interest rate decision. It’s likely to be a big deal too as the futures market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a 15 bps interest rate hike in November and a hike fully priced in for February.
The bank has already stated that an interest rate rise would likely be “appropriate” before the end of its bond purchase scheme. However, some bank members are still on the fence and believe it would be premature to increase rates this year.
The fact the market has built up an expectation of what is more likely to happen combined with the fact there are mixed messages from the bank’s members, makes an extreme move up or down more likely so be sure to exercise sound risk management principles.
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, GBPUSD, Weekly - Data range: from 23 Mar 2014 to 29 Oct 2021, performed on 29 Oct 2021 at 7:00 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The weekly chart of GBPUSD shows the currency pair is trading in between significant resistance and support as shown by the two black horizontal lines. Price rejected the upper resistance level in May and started a downtrend to the lower support level.
In June, the price turned at this lower support level and has pushed higher but has yet failed to snap out of the lower low, lower high cycle downtrend. The failure of the currency pair not making a higher high could be a sign that longer-term players may be on the sidelines until after this week’s BOE news announcement.
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Corporate Trading Updates and Stock Indices
Even though tech giants Apple and Amazon missed analyst estimates in their latest earnings report last week, US stock indices still recorded new all-time highs. They will be tested this week with Wednesday’s FOMC Press Conference.
European stock market indices such as the DAX40 and CAC40 have broken out of recent ranges. Traders will now be looking for momentum to build back to the record highs.
Keep an eye on the following companies reporting this week:
- Tuesday – Pfizer, Activision Blizzard
- Wednesday – Qualcomm
- Thursday – Airbnb, Peloton, Uber
- Friday – Alibaba, Berkshire Hathaway
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, SP500, Daily - Data range: from 26 Jan 2021 to 29 Oct 2021, performed on 29 Oct 2021 at 6:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Past five-year performance of the S&P 500: 2020 = +16.17%, 2019 = +29.09%, 2018 = -5.96%, 2017 = +19.08%, 2016 = +8.80
The daily price chart of the S&P 500 stock market index shown above, highlights the strength of buyers who stepped in around the 100-period exponential moving average (green line) after the summer months.
The rally higher is still intact and has made a new all-time high price level. Being this far into the daily impulse cycle traders may choose to look at the lower timeframes for more price clues and levels.
Otherwise, a retest of the 50-period exponential moving average (red line) could be an interesting level for buyers to step in again.
Either way, it’s definitely one to watch!
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