During the months of February and March, we have noticed how different macroeconomic indicators have been showing positive data, bringing hope for the future of the European economy, but today, we have seen several macroeconomic data, among which the German quarterly GDP stands out.
Specifically, the data has been slightly lower than expected by the market consensus, marking a decrease of 1.7% compared to 1.5%, although if we look at the annualized data it has been better than expected, reaching -3,3% versus -3.6%. This data has generated doubts in the financial markets since it shows an unexpected slowdown of the European locomotive, although this can be explained by the problems that Europe is suffering when it comes to advancing with the vaccination process.
If we look at the eurozone as a whole, the quarterly GDP has been better than expected after falling only 0.6% compared to the 0.8% expected. Countries such as Spain and Italy have shown a GDP in line with what was expected, while France has grown by 0.4% compared to the 0.1% expected.
In the coming weeks, the evolution of the vaccination process will be key, since the acceleration of this can provoke the progressive lifting of the different restrictions imposed by European countries, boosting the economy in the face of the summer campaign.
As we can see in the DAX30 daily chart, in recent months it has been following a strong upward trend that led it to set record highs on April 16 at 15509.17 points, after which a correction began that has led to forming a triangular formation with a floor at 15074.67 points and the short-term downtrend line as we can see in the H4 chart.
It is important that we follow this triangular formation very closely, since the direction of its rupture could decay the trend in the coming weeks since a bullish break of this formation could reinforce the price and seek its level of historical highs again. . On the contrary, a bearish break of this formation could increase the declines although we must bear in mind that its average of 200 periods of H4 is quite close, so this break could be slowed. The loss of this moving average would open the doors to a greater correction that could reach levels not seen since last March.
Source: DAX30 H4 chart from Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5 platform from February 10, 2021 to April 30, 2021. Taken: April 30 at 12:30 CEST. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
Price evolution of the last 5 years:
- 2020: 3.6%
- 2019: 25.48%
- 2018: -18.26%
- 2017: 12.51%
- 2016: 6.87%
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