The German economy suffers a slowdown in the first quarter

April 30, 2021 15:00

During the months of February and March, we have noticed how different macroeconomic indicators have been showing positive data, bringing hope for the future of the European economy, but today, we have seen several macroeconomic data, among which the German quarterly GDP stands out.

Specifically, the data has been slightly lower than expected by the market consensus, marking a decrease of 1.7% compared to 1.5%, although if we look at the annualized data it has been better than expected, reaching -3,3% versus -3.6%. This data has generated doubts in the financial markets since it shows an unexpected slowdown of the European locomotive, although this can be explained by the problems that Europe is suffering when it comes to advancing with the vaccination process.

If we look at the eurozone as a whole, the quarterly GDP has been better than expected after falling only 0.6% compared to the 0.8% expected. Countries such as Spain and Italy have shown a GDP in line with what was expected, while France has grown by 0.4% compared to the 0.1% expected.

In the coming weeks, the evolution of the vaccination process will be key, since the acceleration of this can provoke the progressive lifting of the different restrictions imposed by European countries, boosting the economy in the face of the summer campaign.

As we can see in the DAX30 daily chart, in recent months it has been following a strong upward trend that led it to set record highs on April 16 at 15509.17 points, after which a correction began that has led to forming a triangular formation with a floor at 15074.67 points and the short-term downtrend line as we can see in the H4 chart.

It is important that we follow this triangular formation very closely, since the direction of its rupture could decay the trend in the coming weeks since a bullish break of this formation could reinforce the price and seek its level of historical highs again. . On the contrary, a bearish break of this formation could increase the declines although we must bear in mind that its average of 200 periods of H4 is quite close, so this break could be slowed. The loss of this moving average would open the doors to a greater correction that could reach levels not seen since last March.

Source: DAX30 H4 chart from Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5 platform from February 10, 2021 to April 30, 2021. Taken: April 30 at 12:30 CEST. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

Price evolution of the last 5 years:

  • 2020: 3.6%
  • 2019: 25.48%
  • 2018: -18.26%
  • 2017: 12.51%
  • 2016: 6.87%

With the Admiral Markets Trade.MT5 account, you can trade Contracts for Differences (CFDs) of Microsoft and more than 3000 stocks! CFDs allow traders to try to profit from the bull and bear markets, as well as the use of leverage. Click on the following banner to open an account today:

Trade With MetaTrader 5


The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
  3. With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  4. The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Roberto Rojas (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
  6. Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  7. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
An all-in-one solution for spending, investing, and managing your money

More than a broker, Admirals is a financial hub, offering a wide range of financial products and services. We make it possible to approach personal finance through an all-in-one solution for investing, spending, and managing money.