Weekly Market Outlook OPEC, RBA & ECB in focus
Markets will be first digesting reports over the weekend that OPEC and its allies are targeting a full end to oil production cuts by September 2022. This deal is likely to start in August as oil prices hit their highest levels for more than two years.
Attention will also turn to euro and European stock indices this week in anticipation of the European Central Bank (ECB) press conference on Thursday. It’s likely the bank commit to negative rates for longer creating a divergence with other central banks like the Fed.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are also due to release their latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes report on Tuesday with European PMI data released on Friday.
You can learn more about some of the global themes affecting the markets in this selection of new education articles.
Weekly Forex Calendar
Source: Forex Calendar from MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals
Did you know that three times a week, three professional traders talk through the markets live and show you how to identify potential trading opportunities? Reserve your complimentary spot in the Admirals Spotlight webinar now by clicking the banner below!
Trader’s Radar – ECB Press Conference
At 12.45 pm BST on Thursday 22 July, the ECB releases its latest Monetary Policy Statement. This will be followed by a press conference at 1.30 pm BST where the euro could exhibit a higher degree of volatility.
That’s because the market is anticipating the bank will change its forward guidance and commit to negative rates for a longer period of time. ECB President Christine Lagarde previously promised new policy signals for this meeting.
The bank has already raised its inflation target and may announce that the pandemic asset purchase programme will be replaced by normal asset purchases afterwards – effectively diverging in policy from other major central banks.
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5, EURUSD, Weekly - Data range: from Nov 12, 2017, to Jul 18, 2021. Performed on Jul 18, 2021, at 7:00 am GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The weekly chart of EURUSD shown above, highlights the range that has developed in between the two black horizontal support and resistance lines. This wedge formation has developed since last October and has produced trending cycles on the lower timeframes.
Currently, the price sits above the lower support level. If the price can breakthrough on a confirmation of diverging monetary policy then sellers could remain in control until the next level of support just under 1.1600.
However, if the bank catches the market off guard, then a series of bullish cycles on lower timeframes could help the currency pair move to the middle of the wedge formation.
If you’re feeling inspired and ready to trade live in the market, you can open a live trading account by clicking on the banner below and accessing an impressive range of trading features to support you in your journey.
Corporate Trading Updates and Stock Indices
Global stock market indices continue to trend higher but rather unevenly across the world. Asia indices remain range based while European indices have struggled to break to new highs. Only the US indices have managed to remain in clear up trends with some recording all-time highs last week.
Source: Admiral Markets MetaTrader 5, SP500, Daily - Data range: from Oct 22, 2020, to Jul 18, 2021, performed on Jul 18, 2021, at 6:30 pm GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Past five-year performance of the S&P 500:
- 2020 = +16.17%
- 2019 = +29.09%
- 2018 = -5.96%
- 2017 = +19.08%
- 2016 = +8.80
The daily chart of the S&P 500 index shown above, still confirms the overall uptrend in the market. All of the moving averages (20-period, 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages) are still pointing upwards in the right order.
Historically buyers have stepped in on the 50-period exponential moving average (red line) with the occasional bounced on the 20-period exponential moving average (blue line). These levels still remain the most interesting as we are still in the uptrend.
Did you know that you can use the Trading Central Technical Ideas Lookup indicator to find actionable trading ideas on this index and thousands of other instruments across Forex, stocks, indices, commodities and more?
You can get this indicator completely FREE by upgrading your MetaTrader 5 trading platform provided by Admirals to the exclusive Supreme Edition!
INFORMATION ABOUT ANALYTICAL MATERIALS:
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admiral Markets investment firms operating under the Admiral Markets trademark (hereinafter “Admiral Markets”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
- With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Jitan Solanki (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
- Any kind of past or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.