Markets remain unstoppable, surpassing previous highs and creating, in most world stock indices, new all-time highs.
This bias of the main macroeconomic forces accompanies this staggered and solid growth. On the other hand, business benchmarks continue to reflect good numbers in revenue growth and cut expenses, so net profits continue to rise, and that supports equities to continue growing.
The growth in the administration of Covid-19 vaccines reopens the doors of many companies which now see a light at the end of a very long tunnel. A tunnel that, for some, was too long to withstand, leading to bankruptcy, which aided their competitors.
As we can see in these two images, US banks continue to reflect an important strength that represents the growth of the US economy.
Source: Finviz.com. Table prepared on May 2, 2021 at 3:00
This week’s Forex Calendar
Source: Admirals. Image obtained from the Forex Calendar of admiralmarkets.com/es. Prepared on May 2, 2021, at 3:15 p.m.
There are few important macroeconomic events this week, but we will have to be very attentive to them in order to see the possible evolution of economic growth, or its consolidation.
On Tuesday, we will see if the expected growth in the US Trade Balance becomes a reality. The same will happen on Friday for Germany, although this time the expected growth is much lower.
The decision based on monetary policy by the United Kingdom also stands out. Although interest rates are expected to remain at 0.1%, we will be very attentive to the comments and subsequent press conferences to see what the roadmap set by the Bank of England will be regarding the next measures of fiscal stimulus.
Evolution of the Euro and the Dollar
The rumours of the possible tax increase that the Biden government wants to carry out continue to shake the currency market and, above all, the main parity. Now it is the dollar’s time to recover, but it is still close to the minimum and with a EUR/USD that continues to maintain its medium-term bullish structure since May 2020.
Source: Daily chart of the EUR/USD obtained in the MetaTrader 5 platform by Admirals. Range: from December 17, 2019, to April 26, 2021. Chart prepared on May 2, 2021, at 3:30 p.m. Please note that past gains do not guarantee future returns.
As long as the US economy and its equities continue to perform favourably, the dollar will have a negative run. What is good for US equities is bad for the dollar, and bad for US bonds as well.
The macroeconomic aspect in Europe continues to have hope, allowing for growth in the manufacturing and business sectors, especially in tech. But there are also many with losses, in sectors like in financial, consumer, and commercial which have a very important weight in Europe. This negative scenario continues to create a very large burden on the continent, particularly in the number of unemployed, which generates, in turn, falls in consumption and in the circulation of money, which translates into negative figures for the economy. In the end, it is a negative circle, in which the European Central Bank should influence and take measures to counteract it.
For yet another week, US equity indices continue to climb to record highs and, despite the fact that we are seeing the accumulation of paper (selling money), they continue to overcome resistance in the short and medium-term, while setting new objectives for the short-term.
As long as the SP500 does not lose reference supports in the short term (4,100 and 4,000 respectively) and that the macroeconomic references do not reflect a loss of value or economic potential, we will not be able to assume a change in trend, and we will continue to set higher targets in the following weeks.
Source: SP500 weekly chart obtained on Admirals MetaTrader 5 platform. Range: from March 29, 2020, to April 25, 2021. Chart drawn on May 2, 2021, at 3:45 p.m. Please note that past gains do not guarantee future returns.
On the business side in the US, the technology, communication, energy, and cyclical consumption sectors continue to stand out as the most important, offset by the negative evolution of the financial and semiconductor sectors, which continue to drag in the short term. Do not forget that consumption represents 2/3 of the US GDP.
This scenario is contrary to that of the main sectors of Europe. The latest results confirm the growth in the most important sectors with the greatest weight in Europe's GDP, which may not be reflected in the nearest horizon, but which will be very positive for the medium term.
In this scenario, we will have to be attentive to the next results to be presented and see the evolution of the entities that comprise the main sectors, both in the US and in Europe.
Futures evolution in the last week
Last week counteracted the good evolution of Natural Gas, Corn, and Soybean Oil, with a negative bias in Platinum, Cocoa, and Orange Juice. Despite the movements in the markets, the volatility VIX continues to await significant movements.
Source: Finviz.com. Table prepared on May 2, 2021 at 4:15 p.m.
Evolution of other sectors last week
As we have commented previously, the energy, communication, and financial sectors continue to stand out on the positive side of the US economy. On the negative side, we can see health and technology as the sectors with the worst performance last week.
For this reason, it will be very important to see the evolution and bias of the business results that will be presented this week, and we will see if the evolution is to be similar to what we have seen in recent weeks or, on the contrary, if it stands out in other sector lines.
Source: Finviz.com. Table prepared on May 2, 2021 at 4:30 p.m.
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