Wave structure on DAX, EUR and USD prior to Italian referendum 2016 2016.12.01
DAX30
Weekly
The German DAX index break above the resistance trend line (dotted red) after it bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of a potential wave 4 (purple). The bullish break could be part of wave (purple) and multiple waves 1-2 (orange/green) could explain the series of higher highs and higher lows recently. However, a strong break above the resistance top (solid red) is needed to confirm the structure. A push below the support trend line (green) and 50% of wave 4 (purple) invalidates the waves 1-2.
4 hour
Wave 2 (orange) seems to have been completed on a lower time frame. The bullish momentum after price bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (orange) has been marked as a wave 1 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) retracement has been choppy and corrective as price moves sideways via a WXY correction (blue/green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 could act as support but a break below the 100% level invalidates wave 2 (brown). A break above the resistance (orange/red) could trigger a potential wave 3 (orange).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is bouncing in between support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. Major support levels from the daily chart (green) are also key. A bullish break above resistance (orange) could see price correct to higher Fibonacci levels. A break below the support zone (green lines) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.
1 hour
The EUR/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) within a larger WXY (brown/purple) correction. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W could indicate that price will extend the correction in a wave Y (brown).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY posted a new higher high close to 115 as the bullish momentum extends further and further.
1 hour
The USD/JPY could be retracing within a wave 4 (brown) although in that case price cannot break below the 50% Fibonacci level otherwise the structure is invalidated.
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