EUR/USD, GBP/USD display first signs of bearish momentum 2016.08.04

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after which is broke the steep support trend line (dotted green). This could indicate the completion of wave 2 (brown) at the 61.8% Fib but a push higher could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1. A break above 100% invalidates the wave count.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building bearish momentum which seems to be part of a wave 3. Any pullback should not go above the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) otherwise price invalidates the current wave count by moving above the bottom of wave 1 (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD will be impacted the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision on Thursday 4 August. The Cable is now building a contracting triangle (red/green). The breakout will decide whether the Cable is bullish or bearish. Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD retraced back for a wave B (purple) and the pushed further for a new higher high, which could complete wave C (purple). At the moment the bearish momentum could lead to the start of a new wave 1-2 (blue) but the break of the triangle (purple lines) will indicate whether price can test the next resistance (orange) or support (green) lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could indicate the completion of wave X (brown) whereas a bearish break could price fall further to test the 100% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a channel (blue line). A break above or below the support or resistance of the channel could indicate the start of a bearish or bullish breakout.

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