President Joe Biden elects Jerome Powell, and he will continue his term at the head of the Fed

November 23, 2021 14:30

It has been an intense day in the financial markets, and we can highlight the strong volatility caused during the session yesterday. Namely the volatility in the European telecommunications sector after the takeover bid of the investment group KKR to Telecom Italia for a total of 11,000 million euros, assuming the cost of the current debt of the company. This is the second move made by this fund after the acquisition of the Spanish company MásMóvil last year 2020. 

If we focus on the macroeconomic data, during today's session, we have received the preliminary data of the PMI of both the services and manufacturing sectors in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the whole of the euro area. The general trend has been to obtain better-than-expected data after several months down, although we will have to wait to know the definitive data to check if this improvement is really confirmed. 

Last but not least, the market's attention is focused on Joe Biden's decision to keep Jerome Powell as chairman of the US Federal Reserve for a second term. This choice has been taken at a key moment for the future of the economy, since a change in the presidency of the Fed could cause a turn in economic policy at a time when we can observe various problems about the economy at a global level. 

Powell prevails over the Democratic candidate Brainard although she will become the vice president of this body. Brainard is considered to be more likely to maintain a more accommodative or lax policy compared to the current policy to cut monetary stimulus, so this decision is committed to stability at a crucial time thus giving peace of mind to investors. 

This decision increases the probability that during 2022 we may find ourselves with rate-hikes in the United States, thus supporting the strength of the US dollar that we have been observing during the last few months. Such as the rise in the dollar index of 0.54% during yesterday's session marked highs during today's session at 96.61 dollars. 

Technically speaking, during the past week we could observe a week of bearish continuation in the EUR/USD that was marked by the strength of the dollar after rising by 0.95% weekly. This caused the EUR/USD to make a strong bearish impulse after breaking down the important support levels of 1.14944 and 1.14223. 

This strong bearish momentum has during the month of November has caused the EUR/USD to lose 2.6%, reaching the important support level of 1.12374, continuing with the downward trend that began after confirming the formation of the triple ceiling in the lower green strip. At the moment, it seems that the downtrend continues strongly so we must be very attentive to the behaviour at its current support level, since the loss of this would open the doors to a further decline in search of the level of 1.11675 or even in search of the psychological level of 1.10. 

On the contrary, if the price manages to maintain this support level we cannot rule out an upward correction in search of its 18-session blank moving average that currently acts as its main resistance level around the level of 1.14200. 

Source: EURUSD daily chart from Admirals' MetaTrader 5 platform. Data range: from September 3, 2019 to November 23, 2021. Held on 23 November 2021 at 09:45 CET. Please note that past returns do not guarantee future returns. 

Evolution of the last 5 years: 

  • 2020 = +8,93% 
  • 2019 = -2.21% 
  • 2018 = -4.47% 
  • 2017 = +14.09% 
  • 2016 = -3.21% 

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Roberto Rojas
Roberto Rojas Financial Analyst, Admirals Spain

Roberto is a Financial Analyst with a European Financial Advisor certificate and a Double Degree in Business Administration and in Actuarial and Financial Sciences. In 2013 was graduated as an Expert Manager in Equities