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Your weekly fundamental view 2016.02.15

February 15, 2016 09:20

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Need to know

US markets are closed on Monday 15 February for the Presidents Day holiday, but there is plenty of data due over the rest of the week.

Coming up

On Tuesday 16 Feb. We have the Empire State Manf. Survey for Feb.This influential NY Fed survey dipped sharply in January after a shallower fall in December.Why should traders care? The survey reflects economic activity among NY state businesses. As such it's a barometer for the wider US economy and the health of its recovery.Watch EUR/USD support 110.80: resistance 113.42

Thursday 18 Feb. Will see the Philly Fed Survey and US weekly jobless claims.Philly Fed data has been in decline for more than a year, while Jobless claims have risen since the autumn. Why should traders care? Solid employment data was behind the Fed's recent rate rise. But continuing weaker survey data and rising jobless claims could suggest the Fed was wrong to move pre Christmas. Watch US 10 Year Note support 130.16: resistance 131.50

UK Retail sales for January are released on Friday 19 Feb.The prior month came in well below forecast at -1.0% MoM. Another fall would make it three in a row. Why should traders care? Retail sales are a key component of a service led economy like the UK. If they are regularly falling, then the health of consumer spending is open to question.Watch GBP/USD support 1.4460: resistance 1.4606

Chart to watch: Dax 30 weekly chart

The Dax has fallen sharply in recent weeks amid concerns about a strengthening Euro and a weaker banking sector. It has bounced from 8750 but the downtrend remains in place. Solid closes above 9765 and then 10000 are needed to fully restore confidence.